Stocks fell sharply across Europe and Asia on
Wednesday following another down day on Wall Street where the Dow Jones
lost 508 points and the S&P 500 slipped below the 1,000 mark for the first
time since 2003. Japan�s benchmark index, the Nikkei, lost nearly 10 percent
while shares in London at one point slumped more than 7 percent. Trading was
suspended in Indonesia and Russia where stocks fell 10 percent respectively on
opening.
According to Bloomberg News: �The Federal Reserve, European
Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Canada and Sweden�s Riksbank cut
interest rates in an emergency coordinated bid to ease the economic effects of
the financial crisis.�
The move by the Fed�s Open Market Committee (FOMC) brings
the Fed�s Fund rate down to 1.5 percent, 500 basis points below the current
rate of inflation.
Following Wednesday�s 508-point bloodbath, President George
Bush tried to calm jittery investors about the turmoil in the markets. He said,
�I know that the days are dim right now for a lot of folks. But I firmly
believe tomorrow is going to be brighter.�
Just hang in there.
The present crisis, which has its roots in the unsupervised
expansion of credit in the United States, has spread from subprime mortgages
and toxic securities, to the entire global financial system, where it has
roiled equities markets and is now threatening to do incalculable damage to the
US and European banking systems.
Wednesday, Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke announced plans to pump
an estimated $1 trillion of short-term loans (commercial paper) into the
financial system to head off a growing liquidity squeeze. Unlike, Treasury
Secretary Paulson�s $700 billion bailout, which was opposed by over 200
economists, Bernanke�s plan targets the source of the problem and could
actually succeed. (Ed: Commercial paper is a low-cost source of cash for
companies to meet short-term financial needs. It�s cheaper than tapping a line
of credit at a bank.) The Fed will start providing businesses and financial
institutions with the short-term credit they need to maintain normal day-to-day
operations. The Fed is invoking emergency powers under its �unusual and exigent
circumstances� clause in order to avert an even larger shock to the financial
system beyond the wreckage in the stock market and hundreds of bank closures
that are expected into 2010. Providing unsecured loans directly to businesses
is controversial, but necessary. If these corporations and financial
institutions fail just because they cannot roll over their short-term debt, the
overall damage to the economic system could be devastating
In Wednesday�s speech, Bernanke gave a gloomy summary
of present economic conditions: �Economic activity had shown signs of
decelerating even before the recent upsurge in financial-market tensions. As
has been the case for some time, the housing market continues to be a primary
source of weakness in the real economy as well as in the financial markets.
However, the slowdown in economic activity has spread outside the housing
sector. Private payrolls have continued to contract, and the declines in
employment, together with earlier increases in food and energy prices, have
eroded the purchasing power of households. This sluggishness of real incomes,
together with tighter credit and declining household wealth, is now showing
through more clearly to consumer spending. Indeed, since May, real consumer
outlays have contracted significantly. Meanwhile, in the business sector,
worsening sales prospects and a heightened sense of uncertainty have begun to
weigh more heavily on investment spending as well.�
The US is caught in a deflationary downdraft that could have
catastrophic long-term effects. That�s why Bernanke has pulled out all the
stops and doubled the Fed�s loans (via auction facilities) to banks to $900
billion while allowing financial institutions to use mortgage-backed securities
and other dodgy structured investments as collateral. The Fed has also started
paying interest on reserve balances held at the central bank. This helps to
push down the overnight lending rate below the Fed Funds rate which helps to
reliquify the banks.
John Ryding, chief economist of RDQ Economics LLC in New
York, called the practice, �stealth easing,� another attempt to flood the
markets with credit and get the economy moving. Will it work?
Bernanke has a good idea of the nearly insurmountable
challenges in front of him. Apart from the faltering banking system, the
collapse in real estate, and the unwinding of trillions of dollars of
counterparty bets via derivatives contracts, Bernanke faces the sudden
capitulation in consumer spending. The US consumer is tapped out on credit card
debt, student loans, car loans and home mortgages. Retail spending is falling
and likely to get worse. Bernanke�s plan to recapitalize the banking system
ignores the larger issue that fewer people will be applying for loans and that
less credit will be flowing through the system. Slower growth is inevitable.
The sudden change in spending patterns is evident everywhere. Personal savings
are increasing, home equity withdrawals are down (to nearly zero) and the new
reality of �living within one�s means� is becoming the prevailing ethos.
America is hunkering down.
�Big discounts fail to lure shoppers,� reports the Wall
Street Journal. Restaurants are empty. Shopping malls are not even attracting
strollers and gawkers -- let alone people with money to spend. Auto lots are so
quiet the salesmen take turns pretending to be customers -- just to keep their
skills at-the-ready. Even the private jet business is in a tailspin.� (The
Daily Reckoning)
Personal consumption is down, unemployment is rising,
manufacturing is slowing, and commodities have taken a record plunge in the
last few weeks. The telltale signs of deflation are everywhere.
According to economist Asha Bangalore at Northern Trust, �The
July-August data point to a possible drop in consumer spending during the third
quarter. If the forecast is accurate, it would be the first quarterly decline
since the fourth quarter of 1991. Given the importance of consumer spending in
GDP, a drop in consumer spending in the third quarter raises the probability of
a contraction in real GDP in the third quarter.�
Nine out of 10 Americans now believe the country is headed
in the �wrong direction� economically, while, according to CNN/Opinion Research
Corp. poll, which surveyed more than 1,000 Americans over the last weekend, a
majority of people now �believe another economic depression is likely� and that
we will experience �25% unemployment rate, widespread bank failures and
millions of Americans homeless and unable to feed their families.�
The good news is that inflationary pressures have eased. The
bad news is . . . well . . . everything else.
From the Fed�s 7 a.m.,
October 8, 2008, press release, �Joint Statement by Central Banks�: �Incoming
economic data suggest that the pace of economic activity has slowed markedly in
recent months. Moreover, the intensification of financial market turmoil is
likely to exert additional restraint on spending, partly by further reducing
the ability of households and businesses to obtain credit. Inflation has been high,
but the Committee believes that the decline in energy and other commodity
prices and the weaker prospects for economic activity have reduced the upside
risks to inflation.�
The United States is headed into another Great
Depression and has probably dragged the rest of the world along with it. The
global financial system will look very different by the time we reach the other
end of the tunnel.
Mike
Whitney lives in Washington state. He can be reached at fergiewhitney@msn.com.