"See,
in my line of work you got to keep repeating things over and over and over
again for the truth to sink in, to kind of catapult the propaganda."
--George W. Bush, at the Athena Performing Arts Center at Greece Athena
Middle and High School, Tuesday,
May 24, 2005 in Rochester, NY, MP3
When he departs the White House on 20 January 2009, the
current resident will bequeath to the American people and the next
administration an interminable war in the Middle East and a depreciated
currency.
And that�s the good news. It assumes there is a successor
administration and that no Cheney-contrived "national emergency" will
make it possible for Bush to test drive National
Security Presidential Directive/NSPD-51 and Homeland Security Presidential
Directive/HSPD-20 to cancel the 2008 election.
Neoconservatives led by Vice President Dick Cheney remain
determined to effect "regime change" in Iran. The allegation of
weapons of mass destruction falsely brought against Iraq is now being deployed
against Iran.
The International Atomic Energy Agency says that there is no
evidence that Iran has a nuclear weapons program. The IAEA is the
institution that polices the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty by inspecting the
nuclear facilities of the signatories to the treaty of which Iran is one.
However, the neocon/Cheney/Bush regime is prepared to bomb Iran on the basis of
fibs alone.
Faithfully repeated by the propaganda ministry that
masquerades as the "mainstream media," those fibs have been trotted
out so many times in recent months that significant numbers of Americans now
believe themselves to be in peril from nonexistent Iranian nukes.
In this way, the regime gains the complicity of the American
people and their representatives in Congress for what will be unprovoked
aggression against a third Middle Eastern country, a third war crime under the
Nuremberg standard.
The "war on terror" is a hoax. It serves as a
cover for the drive for US and Israeli hegemony in the Middle East. Iraq, Iran,
and Syria became neoconservative targets, because they were the only Middle
Eastern countries that are not American puppet states or dependencies.
Afghanistan was attacked, because the Taliban were uniting
the country under the banner of Islam, a development that, if successful, could
lead to the overthrow of the governments in America�s puppet states and
dependencies.
The war rhetoric against Iran ratcheted up when the White
House belatedly realized that the result of "bringing democracy to
Iraq" was to empower the majority Shi�ites, thereby creating a Shi�ite
crescent from Iran to southern Lebanon and alarming America�s Sunni Saudi
Arabian dependent.
Israel�s goal is to have the Americans eliminate the Muslim
states that support Hamas and Hezbollah�s opposition to Israel�s theft of the
remainder of Palestine and southern Lebanon, whose water resources Israel
covets. Israel�s goal thus precisely coincides with that of the Cheney regime.
The "Cakewalk War" in
Iraq was supposed to be over in a few weeks and to pay for itself out of Iraqi
oil revenues. The war is now five years old and has cost American taxpayers,
and those left dependent on government programs by decades of a welfare state,
$1 trillion in out-of-pocket and already incurred future costs.
As large and troublesome as this cost is, it pales in
comparison to the damage the war has done to the value of the dollar and its
role as reserve currency. Since 2001, the euro has risen 60 percent against the
dollar.
This means much more to Americans than the higher cost of a
European vacation and status symbol German cars. The US dollar is losing its
reserve currency role when the euro, the currency of a nonexistent country --
Europe -- becomes so much more desirable than the dollar that it rises 60
percent in value.
The euro is a monetary unit that has run far ahead of the
political entity whose currency it is. Europe still consists of separate
sovereign states, and many of them are unhappy with the euro. Yet, since 2001
people throughout the world have been shifting from dollars to euros.
It is not normal for people to flee from the reserve
currency. It only happens when people believe it cannot continue to fill that role.
The US dollar is under double assault. One assault is from
the offshoring of American jobs, which turns US GDP into foreign GDP and
worsens the US trade deficit. It is not possible to achieve a trade balance
when the production of goods and services for the US market is being moved
offshore by US corporations.
The other assault is from the US budget deficit. Americans
have become so hard pressed that their savings rate is negligible. The US
government has to rely on foreigners to lend it money for its annual
expenditures. Washington�s two biggest bankers are China and Japan, the
countries with the largest trade surpluses with the US.
The transformation of the Iraq "cakewalk" into an
interminable war has run up a one trillion dollar price tag, and an even larger
war with Iran is looming. US generals and neoconservative ideologues predict a
decade or multi-decade long war in the Middle East. Washington�s bankers are
waking up to the reality that they will not be repaid.
The only reason the dollar has not already lost its reserve
currency role is that the only alternative is the currency of a non-existent
political entity. Yet, even the euro, a virtual currency, may have taken the
dollar�s role by the end of 2008.
Full of hegemonic hubris, the US government does not
understand that US power and hegemony have always depended, not on missiles and
military force, but on the financial power conveyed by the dollar�s role as
reserve currency.
The reserve currency is world money, good in any country to
pay any bill. The reserve currency country is not a debtor in the usual sense.
As the reserve currency can be used to settle international accounts, the
reserve currency country can borrow at will until lenders lose confidence in
the currency.
There is abundant evidence that the loss of confidence in
the dollar is underway. When it is complete, the US will no longer be a
superpower.
The decline in American power and influence could be
dramatic. Part of America�s power results from European countries going along with
Washington. However, the sharp rise in the euro�s value has hurt European
exports, squeezing profit margins, wages, and encouraging offshore production.
Fights over monetary policy between European capitals could doom both the EU
and the euro, leaving the world with no reserve currency and America with
embittered former allies.
By going to war for hegemony, the Bush Regime has brought
about American decline. While the neocons have spent two administrations trying
to deracinate Islam, real threats to America�s power have been neglected. Offshoring, which
turns US GDP into imports and larger trade deficits, together with war debts, has
eroded the dollar�s
status as reserve currency, undermining the foundation of American power.
Paul
Craig Roberts [email him] was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the
Reagan Administration. He is the author of Supply-Side
Revolution : An Insider's Account of Policymaking in Washington; Alienation
and the Soviet Economy and Meltdown:
Inside the Soviet Economy, and is the co-author
with Lawrence M. Stratton of The
Tyranny of Good Intentions : How Prosecutors and Bureaucrats Are Trampling the
Constitution in the Name of Justice. Click here for Peter
Brimelow�s Forbes Magazine interview with Roberts about the recent epidemic of
prosecutorial misconduct.