Due to the lifting of the foreclosure moratorium at the end
of March, the downward slide in housing is gaining speed.
The moratorium was initiated in January to give Obama�s
anti-foreclosure program -- which is a combination of mortgage modifications
and refinancing -- a chance to succeed. The goal of the plan was to keep up to
9 million struggling homeowners in their homes, but it�s clear now that the program
will fall well short of its objective.
In March, housing prices accelerated on the downside,
indicating bigger adjustments dead ahead. Trend lines are steeper now than ever
before -- nearly perpendicular. Housing prices are not falling, they�re
crashing and crashing hard.
Now that the foreclosure moratorium has ended, notices of
default (NOD) have spiked to an all-time high. These notices will turn into
foreclosures in four to five months� time, creating another cascade of
foreclosures. Market analysts predict there will be 5 million more foreclosures
between now and 2011. It�s a disaster bigger than Katrina.
Soaring unemployment and rising foreclosures ensure that
hundreds of banks and financial institutions will be forced into bankruptcy. Forty
percent of delinquent homeowners have already vacated their homes. There�s
nothing Obama can do to make them stay. Worse still, only 30 percent of
foreclosures have been relisted for sale, suggesting more hanky-panky at the
banks. Where have the houses gone? Have they simply vanished?
600,000 �disappeared
homes?�
Here�s am excerpt from the San Francisco Chronicle
explaining the mystery: �Lenders nationwide are sitting on hundreds of
thousands of foreclosed homes that they have not resold or listed for sale,
according to numerous data sources. And foreclosures, which banks unload at
fire-sale prices, are a major factor driving home values down.
��We believe there are in the neighborhood of 600,000
properties nationwide that banks have repossessed but not put on the market,�
said Rick Sharga, vice president of RealtyTrac, which compiles nationwide
statistics on foreclosures. �California probably represents 80,000 of those
homes. It could be disastrous if the banks suddenly flooded the market with
those distressed properties. You�d have further depreciation and carnage.�
�In a recent study, RealtyTrac compared its database of
bank-repossessed homes to MLS listings of for-sale homes in four states,
including California. It found a significant disparity - only 30 percent of the
foreclosures were listed for sale in the Multiple Listing Service. The remainder
is known in the industry as �shadow inventory.� (�Banks aren�t Selling Many
Foreclosed Homes,� San Francisco Chronicle)
If regulators were deployed to the banks that are keeping
foreclosed homes off the market, they would probably find that the banks are
actually servicing the mortgages on a monthly basis to conceal the extent of
their losses. They�d also find that the banks are trying to keep housing prices
artificially high to avoid heftier losses that would put them out of business.
One thing is certain, 600,000 �disappeared� homes means that housing prices
have a lot further to fall and that an even larger segment of the banking
system is underwater.
Here is more on the story from Mr. Mortgage �California
Foreclosures About to Soar . . . Again�: �Are you ready to see the future? Tens
of thousands of foreclosures are only 1-5 months away from hitting that will
take total foreclosure counts back to all-time highs. This will flood an
already beaten-bloody real estate market with even more supply just in time for
the Spring/Summer home selling season . . .
�Foreclosure start (NOD) and Trustee Sale (NTS) notices are
going out at levels not seen since mid 2008. Once an NTS goes out, the property
is taken to the courthouse and auctioned within 21-45 days. . . .
�The bottom line is that there is a massive wave of actual
foreclosures that will hit beginning in April that can�t be stopped without a
national moratorium.�
JP Morgan Chase, Wells Fargo and Fannie Mae have all stepped
up their foreclosure activity in recent weeks. Delinquencies have skyrocketed
foreshadowing more price slashing into the foreseeable future.
According to the Wall Street Journal: �Ronald Temple,
co-director of research at Lazard Asset Management, expects home prices to fall
22% to 27% from their January levels. More than 2.1 million homes will be lost
this year because borrowers can�t meet their loan payments, up from about 1.7
million in 2008.� (Ruth Simon, �The housing crisis is about to take center
stage once again,� Wall Street Journal)
Another 20 percent carved off the aggregate value of US
housing means another $4 trillion loss to homeowners. That means smaller
retirement savings, less discretionary spending, and lower living standards.
The next leg down in housing will be excruciating; every
sector will feel the pain. Obama�s $75 billion mortgage rescue plan is a mere
pittance; it won�t reduce the principle on mortgages and it won�t stop the
bleeding. Policymakers have decided they�ve done enough and are refusing to
help. They don�t see the tsunami looming in front of them plain as day. The
housing market is going under and it�s going to drag a good part of the broader
economy along with it. Stocks, too.
Mike
Whitney lives in Washington state. He can be reached at fergiewhitney@msn.com.