Fed chief Ben Bernanke has embarked on the most radical and
ruinous financial rescue plan in history.
According to Bloomberg News, the Fed has already lent or
committed $12.8 trillion trying to stabilize the financial system after the
bursting of Wall Street�s speculative mega-bubble. Now Bernanke wants to dig an
even bigger hole, by creating programs that will provide up to $2 trillion of
credit to financial institutions that purchase toxic assets from banks or
securities backed by consumer loans. The Fed�s generous terms are expected to
generate a flurry of speculation which will help strengthen the banking system
while leaving the taxpayer to bear the losses. It is impossible to know what
the long-term effects of Bernanke�s excessive spending will be, but his plan
has the potential to trigger hyperinflation or spark a run on the dollar.
Bernanke�s zero-percent interest rates, multi-trillion
dollar lending facilities and bank bailouts do not fit within the Fed�s narrow
mandate of �price stability and full employment.� With unemployment soaring to
8.5 percent and increasing at a rate of 650,000 per month (with 15 percent
underemployed) it is a wonder that Bernanke hasn�t been fired already. There
are also myriad problems with Bernanke�s lending facilities which are nothing
more than a crafty way of transferring wealth from the Fed to private industry
via low interest loans. The Central Bank is not supposed to �pick winners� as
it is blatantly doing through its market-distorting facilities. Businesses
outside the financial sector cannot exchange their downgraded garbage with the
Fed for semi-permanent, rotating loans, so why should underwater investment
banks and hedge funds get special treatment? The facilities represent a gift to
financial institutions giving them an unfair advantage in the marketplace.
Besides the $2 trillion for the Term Asset-Backed Lending
Facility (TALF) and the Public-Private Investment Program (PPIP), the Fed will
also provide a multi-billion dollar backstop for the FDIC as bank closures
continue to snowball and more reserves are needed to shore up the system. That
means that the Fed�s balance sheet could mushroom to over $4 trillion by the
end of 2010. The Treasury has already agreed in principle to assume full
responsibility for the Fed�s lending facilities (as well as the bailouts of AIG
and Bear Stearns) as soon as the financial system stabilizes. By providing
loans and US Treasuries to failing companies, instead of capital, Bernanke has
sidestepped Congress, thus, undermining the spirit and the letter of the law.
Congress has approved a mere $1.5 trillion of the nearly $13 trillion for which
taxpayers are now responsible.
The recent 22 percent uptick in the stock market is a sign
that Bernanke�s monetary stimulus is beginning to kick in. Oil rose from $33
per barrel to over $50 in little more than a month. Other raw materials have
followed oil. The dollar has plunged every time the stock market has gone up.
These are all signs of nascent inflation which is likely to accelerate after
the current period of deleveraging ends. Food and energy prices will rise
sharply and the dollar will come under greater and greater pressure. This is
Bernanke�s nightmare scenario: a surge in inflation that forces him to raise
rates and kill the recovery before it ever begins. The Fed�s unwillingness to
be proactive in dealing with credit bubbles has created a situation where there
are no easy answers or pain free solutions.
Bernanke�s approach to the crisis has been wrongheaded from
the get-go. It makes no sense to commit nearly $13 trillion to prop up a
grossly oversized financial system while providing less than $900 billion
stimulus for the real economy. The whole plan is upside down. It�s consumers,
homeowners and workers that create demand (consumer spending is 72 percent of
GDP) and yet, they�ve been left to twist in the wind while the bulk of the
resources have been directed to financial speculators who are responsible for
the mess.
Middle class families have seen their retirements slashed in
half and their home equity vanish, while their jobs become increasingly less
secure. The Fed and the Treasury should be focused on debt relief, mortgage
cram-downs, jobs programs and open-ended support for state and local
governments. Rebuilding the financial infrastructure for extending more credit
to people that are already underwater is beyond shortsighted; it�s cruel. The
financial system needs to shrink to fit the new reality of a smaller economy.
That means that Bernanke should aggressively mark down the dodgy collateral he�s
been accepting (the collateral should reflect current market prices) and force
many of the weaker institutions into bankruptcy. This is the fairest and
fastest way to shake the deadwood from the financial system. Keeping asset
prices artificially inflated only puts off the inevitable day of reckoning.
The IMF communiqu� to the G 20: �The prolonged financial
crisis has battered global activity beyond what was previously anticipated.
Global GDP is estimated to have fallen by an unprecedented 5% in the fourth
quarter, led by the advanced economies, which contracted by 7%. GDP declined by
around 6% in both the United States and Europe, while it plummeted at a
post-war record of 13% in Japan. Growth also plunged across a broad swath of
emerging economies . . . against this backdrop global activity is expected to
contract in 2009 for the first time in 60 years.�
Bernanke�s monetary stimulus strategy will do little to
mitigate the severity of the contraction which has already gripped every sector
of the economy. Credit more than doubled in the first few years of the new
millennium. In fact, that total system credit jumped from $1.75 trillion in
2000 to $4.4 trillion in 2007. At the same time, the Current Account Deficit --
which averaged about $100 billion per year during the 1990s -- ballooned to a
whopping $788 billion in 2006. Clearly, the Fed�s flood of low interest credit
coupled with unsustainable deficits put the country on course for a major
catastrophe. (Greenspan still says he never saw it coming.) Now that the bubble
has burst, Bernanke has gone into panic mode, frantically hosing down the entire
financial system with liquidity, but with little effect. The sheer magnitude of
the deflationary tidal wave is unprecedented.
Here�s author and economist Henry Liu: �Globally, the
dollar-denominated financial system has seen its equity market capitalization
value fall by between 40-60% by February 2009. . . . On October 31, 2007, the
total market value of publicly traded companies around the world was $62.6
trillion. By December 31, 2008, the value had dropped nearly half to $31.7
trillion. The gap of lost wealth, $30.9 trillion, is approximately the combined
annual Gross Domestic Product of the US, Western Europe, and Japan. . . . Family
net worth hit a record high of $64.36 trillion in 2nd quarter of 2007. By 4th
quarter 2008, it fell to $51.48 trillion, a loss of $12.88 trillion.
�To restore the wealth lost in the current financial crisis,
the Treasury would have to monetize some $30 trillion of toxic assets, almost
ten times what the Geithner Treasury is currently contemplating, and twice the
size of current US annual GDP. Add to that about $10 trillion of value lost in
the collapse of commodity prices and another $10 trillion in real property
values, and we have a wealth loss of $50 trillion.� (Obama�s Politics of Change
and US Policy on China, Asia Times, Henry Liu)
Nearly half of the world�s wealth has been consumed in one
gigantic capital bonfire. No amount of �quantitative easing� will undo the
damage to the economy.
Here�s a clip from Merrill Lynch�s David Rosenberg adding
more perspective to Liu�s comments: �Government cannot prevent nature from
taking its course. While an additional $1.15 trillion expansion of the Fed�s
balance sheet is large as a stand-alone event, it really is just a drop in the
bucket when one considers that there is still almost $8 trillion of combined
household and business sector credit that must be unwound in order to
mean-revert the private sector-to-GDP ratio (which is still close to a
record-high). Once again, the government is cushioning the blow, but cannot prevent
nature from taking its course.
�[We] feel much more confident that corporate earnings are
going to slide again this year. . . . The economy continues to contract . . . job
losses, declining equity and housing wealth, and tight credit conditions have weighed
on consumer sentiment and spending. Weaker sales prospects and difficulties in
obtaining credit have led businesses to cut back on inventories and fixed
investment. US exports have slumped as a number of major trading partners have
also fallen into recession.� This is with the Fed funds rate effectively at
zero. It�s pretty clear that the Fed does not see any flicker of light at the
end of the tunnel just yet. Mr. Market may be in for yet another surprise.�
(Interview with David Rosenberg, Tech Ticker)
The system-wide contraction can�t be stopped by supporting
financial institutions that made bad bets or took on perilous amounts of debt
leaving them deep in the red. Fed lending should be aimed at companies that
need temporary help only, like rolling over loans or getting through a rough
patch while inventories are trimmed and consumers retrench.
Similarly, the stimulus (monetary or fiscal) shouldn�t be
used to reflate assets or to try to reverse the market correction, but to
maintain aggregate demand, take up slack in the sluggish economy, create jobs,
and soften the blow for the victims of Wall Street�s bubblenomics. Bernanke has
used monetary stimulus in precisely the way it should not be used, to keep
asset prices artificially high despite the cooling off in the stock market,
falling corporate profits, and the steeply rising unemployment. There should be
a sharp reduction in the amount lending to financial institutions, reflecting
the decline in the value of the underlying assets which are now priced at
roughly 30 cents on the dollar. Bernanke�s job is to wind down these positions,
not perpetuate the problem at the taxpayers� expense.
According to Bloomberg: �The Federal Reserve�s top two
officials assured that they will pull back their emergency- credit programs
once the crisis fades, even as they prepare to flood the system further with an
excess of $1 trillion.
�Chairman Ben Bernanke said yesterday in Charlotte, North
Carolina, that the Fed must retain the flexibility to withdraw its record cash
injections to restrain prices. Vice Chairman Donald Kohn said in Wooster, Ohio,
�the trick will be unwinding this balance sheet in a timely way to avoid
inflation.��
This is pure fiction. Bernanke has no exit strategy because
the collateral the Fed now holds on its books will never regain anything near
its original value. Securitization turned 80 percent of shaky subprime loans
into AAA assets for which the Fed is now providing full value vis-a-vis its low
interest loans. The Fed chief has made the same bad bet that the financial
institutions made, and is now adding to that mistake by buying $750 billion in
junk loans from Fannie and Freddie and $300 billion in US Treasuries to push
investors out of the safety of cash back into the market. It�s lunacy. All of
this is putting more and more pressure on the dollar which could experience
severe dislocation if Bernanke does not make a reasonable attempt to do what is
necessary to resolve the banks, shore up consumer spending, shut down
underwater financial institutions (auction their toxic assets through a RTC
government-run facility) and stop trying to reassemble a broken system.
Bernanke is in way over his head. He has no plan for
expanding conventional lending or strengthening the parts of the system that still
work. All his efforts have been focused on salvaging insolvent banks and
restarting securitization. Securitization -- transforming pools of loans into
securities -- was Wall Street�s Golden Goose, a privately owned
credit-generating mechanism which created windfall profits by selling
radioactive waste to over-trustful investors. Securitization is the epicenter
of the shadow banking system, the mostly-unregulated universe of opaque debt instruments,
off balance sheet operations, and massively over-leveraged financial
institutions. Securitization broke down after subprime mortgages began
defaulting in record numbers, sending risk-adverse investors scuttling for the
exits.
To illustrate how frozen the securitization market is at
present, here�s a blurb from the Wall Street Journal: �Outside the market where
the Fed is a buyer for securities backed by mortgage loans that conform to
Fannie and Freddie standards, there hasn�t been a new deal since 2007,
according to FTN Financial, a fixed-income broker dealer.� (Wall Street
Journal, Credit Markets Still Navigate in a Choppy Sea of Liquidity)
Repeat: �No new deals since 2007.�
Again from the Wall Street Journal: �Banks and other finance
companies making loans for autos, credit cards and college tuition are having
virtually no success in selling those loans to other investors, a potent sign
of just how tight credit markets remain.
�The market for selling such loans -- by packaging, or
securitizing, them into bonds -- had just one $500 million deal for all of October,
according to Barclays Capital. That compares with $50.7 billion worth of deals
made one year earlier, according to market-research firm Dealogic.� (Bond Woes
Choke off some Credit to Consumers, Wall Street Journal, Robin Sidel)
Securitization is dead, and yet, Bernanke and Geithner want
to shovel another $2 trillion into this black hole hoping to lure investors
back to the market. Why? Because Wall Street financiers and bank mandarins see
securitization as an efficient model that can be exported into any market
around the world. The repackaging of debt into complex instruments, that can be
stealthily created in off balance sheet operations requiring smaller and
smaller slices of capital, is the essential flimflam product that Wall Street
intends to use to dominate global financial markets. Keeping securitization
alive is ultimately about power; pure, unalloyed economic power. That is why
Bernanke will spare no expense trying to resuscitate this failed system.
What�s so destructive about securitization is that it allows
the banks to create credit out of thin air through unregulated, clandestine
operations, which eliminate transparency and makes it impossible for the Fed to
control the money supply.
David Roache explains how this works in an excerpt from his
book �New Monetarism� which appeared in the Wall Street Journal: �The reason
for the exponential growth in credit, but not in broad money, was simply that
banks didn�t keep their loans on their books any more-and only loans on bank
balance sheets get counted as money. Now, as soon as banks made a loan, they �securitized�
it and moved it off their balance sheet.
�There were two ways of doing this. One was to sell the
securitized loan as a bond. The other was �synthetic� securitization: for
example, using derivatives to get rid of the default risk (with credit default
swaps) and lock in the interest rate due on the loan (with interest-rate
swaps). Both forms of securitization meant that the lending bank was free to
make new loans without using up any of its lending capacity once its existing
loans had been �securitized.�
�So, to redefine liquidity under what I call New Monetarism,
one must add, to the traditional definition of broad money, all the credit
being created and moved off banks� balance sheets and onto the balance sheets
of nonbank financial intermediaries. This new form of liquidity changed the
very nature of the credit beast. What now determined credit growth was risk
appetite: the readiness of companies and individuals to run their businesses
with higher levels of debt.� (Wall Street Journal)
The banks have been creating trillions of dollars of credit
without maintaining adequate capital reserves to back them up. That explains
why the banks were so eager to provide mortgages to millions of loan applicants
who had no documentation, no income, no collateral and a bad credit history.
They believed there was no risk, because they were making enormous profits
without tying up any of their capital.
The economy�s life�s
blood in private hands
As Barak Obama says, �Credit is the economy�s life-blood.�
It should not be part of a secretive process which is kept off-book and
controlled by men whose solitary goal is fattening the bottom line for short-term
gain. The reason securitization failed is because the banks put profit above
their responsibility to perform due diligence on their loans. In other words,
securitization created incentives for fraud, which is why the system eventually
collapsed. Still, Bernanke is determined to do Wall Street�s bidding and spend
another $2 trillion trying to rev up the securitization engine.
A recent letter by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, �Fed
Confronts Financial Crisis by Expanding Its Role as Lender of Last Resort�
helps to shed some light on the Fed�s real intentions: �In a modern financial
system, securities-funded lending has replaced the banking system as the
predominant credit source for households and nonfinancial firms. Because of
this development, it can be appropriate to extend the lender of last resort
role to temporarily support some nonbank credit sources. . . .
It�s against this backdrop that the Fed has extended its
role as lender of last resort beyond banks. Since late 2007, the central bank
has supported key credit flows funded by securities, extending loans on
nonfinancial corporations� commercial paper, residential mortgage-backed
securities and nonbank financial companies� loans to consumers and businesses.
The Fed actions recognize the dramatic shift toward debt
funded through securities markets. At the end of 1979, securities funded about
33 percent of household, nonfinancial corporate and nonfarm business debt. By
the third quarter of 2008, that figure had risen to around 64 percent.
A closer look reveals that household debt became
significantly more dependent on market funding, largely reflecting the
increased importance of asset-backed securities (ABS) in funding mortgages and
consumer loans. Even the share of nonfinancial corporate debt funded by
securities rose considerably over the same period�from 57 percent to 76
percent.�
Seventy-six percent! Is it any wonder why the global economy
has been sucked into a bottomless abyss, why auto sales are down 40 percent or
more, why global trade is down 35 percent or more, why unemployment is
skyrocketing, manufacturing is stalling and consumer confidence is plunging?
The Fed has allowed an unregulated and untested privately
controlled �credit generating� shadow banking system to infect the broader
economy and create a nation of credit addicts that are entirely at the mercy of
unpredictable market fluctuations. Is this how the economy�s �life-blood�
should be distributed?
The only reason this occult system was allowed to flourish --
with the tacit support of the Fed and the Treasury -- was because it threw open
the profit-sluicegates for the banks and Wall Street speculators who made more
money than anyone ever thought possible. Clearly, this is what motivates
Bernanke and Geithner. These are their real constituents.
Will the US default
again?
Meanwhile, as Bernanke fiddles, the prospect of a US default
grows more and more likely. Spreads on credit default swaps (CDS) have
progressively widened with every new Fed program and every new multibillion
dollar bailout.
Here�s journalist Greg Ip in The Washington Post: �In its
battle against the financial crisis, the U.S. government has extended its full
faith and credit to an ever-growing swath of the private sector . . . (But) Can
the United States pay the money back?. .
�The most important is the coming surge in the federal debt.
At the end of the last fiscal year, in September, the total public debt held by
the American people stood at $5.8 trillion, or 41 percent of gross domestic product
-- about what the debt-to-GDP ratio has averaged since 1956. But the
Congressional Budget Office projects deficits of $1.9 trillion over the next
two years. Add almost $800 billion of stimulus spending, and U.S. debt soars to
60 percent of GDP by 2010 -- the highest level since the early 1950s, when the
nation was working off its World War II and Korean War debts.
�The federal government has taken on massive �contingent
liabilities� -- loans and guarantees that don�t become actual costs until the
borrower defaults and the federal guarantee has to be honored.� (Greg Ip, We�re
Borrowing Like Mad. Can the U.S. Pay It Back? Washington Post)
Keep in mind, the United States defaulted on its debt in
1933 when Roosevelt took office and pulled the country off the gold standard,
thus, shrugging off the claims of foreign investors who were assured the US
would honor its obligations in gold. The dollar plummeted. Bernanke�s muddled
strategy has the nation walking down that same path once again.
Mike
Whitney lives in Washington state. He can be reached at fergiewhitney@msn.com.