The US administration and the new right-wing Israeli
government may be on a collision course over Middle East peace as well as how
to deal with Iran�s nuclear programme, although any disputes are likely to be
muted or behind firmly closed doors.
It is the policy of Israeli and American governments to be
viewed by the outside world as being joined at the hip with neither side
wishing to air their dirty laundry in public.
And whatever the private views of whoever is at the helm of
the US that superficial unity isn�t likely to change because, as US President
Barack Obama recently told Turkish students, changing US policy is like turning
a tanker and needs time. That begs the question how much authority does an
American president actually possess?
On the subject of the Israel-Palestinian peace process,
there appears to be an apparent unbridgeable chasm between Obama and his
Israeli counterpart Benjamin Netanyahu, known to be less than lukewarm on the
two-state solution.
In the past, he has strongly advocated what he calls
economic peace, which involves West Bank economic development and the
bolstering of the Palestinian Authority�s security forces, leaving the
Hamas-governed Gaza in suffocating limbo.
But once in office, he has said he is open for discussions
with the Palestinian leadership and with heads of Arab states but, until now,
has failed to put his seal of approval on the concept of a country called
Palestine.
Recently, the National Council of Young Israel urged
Netanyahu to reject a Palestinian state in a letter that read, �We believe that
an independent Palestinian state would merely compound the complex problems
that currently exist and open the door to a new wave of acts of terror directed
at innocent Israeli civilians.�
Netanyahu likely agrees with this sentiment but would prefer
to fudge the issue, probably because he doesn�t want to overtly fall out with
Washington. However, his hawkish, outspoken foreign minister, Avigdor Lieberman,
doesn�t share his boss�s reticence.
Israel won�t hold to the declaration made at the 2007
Annapolis peace conference, he maintains, but will adhere to the peace roadmap.
This maybe because the roadmap places onus on the Palestinians to end violence
and upon Arab states to restore pre-Intifada links to Israel before anything
else.
On the other hand, Annapolis puts the burden on both sides �to
bring an end to bloodshed, suffering and decades of conflict between our
peoples� and to �immediately launch good-faith bilateral negotiations in order
to conclude a peace treaty.�
Moreover, Lieberman has openly said he believes the peace
process to be at a dead end and is quoted as saying, �If you want peace,
prepare for war� -- hardly reassuring.
Obama�s strategy is still short on detail, although he did
tell Turkish parliamentarians that a Palestinian state is �a goal that the
parties agreed to in the Roadmap and at Annapolis,� adding, �That is a goal
that I will actively pursue as president.�
Lieberman�s response was to tell foreign powers to quit
giving Israel deadlines to �produce a responsible political programme� and to
stay out of Israeli politics.
So it is clear that Obama backs the roadmap as well as
Annapolis, which are both on similar lines when it comes down to fundamentals.
But he has also expressed support for the Saudi-inspired Arab Peace Initiative,
first unveiled in Beirut at a 2002 Arab League Summit.
This comprehensive plan towards a Palestinian state as well
as normalisation of relations between Israel and all 22 Arab League members,
unlike the Roadmap, requires Israel to withdraw behind its 1967 borders. Obama�s
enthusiasm for both the roadmap and the Arab plan are, therefore, mutually
exclusive from Israel�s perspective. He needs to get down to specifics and
openly say in which direction he�s heading.
No doubt, King Abdullah of Jordan will try to convince Obama
to embrace the Arab Initiative when he visits him in Washington at the end of
April. It�s worth noting that King Abdullah will be the first Middle Eastern
leader to be invited to the Obama White House while Netanyahu has yet to be
summoned.
Obama�s special Middle East envoy, George Mitchell, is
scheduled to visit Israel and the Occupied Territories to understand the mood
in both camps. His is not an enviable task. The momentum towards peace has
rarely, if ever, been as stagnated.
Israelis have proved their disinterest in moving forward by
voting for Netanyahu, while Fatah and Hamas are still divided. Mitchell will
have to heavily prod both sides if he hopes to pull a rabbit from his hat.
Unless Obama is prepared to bare a few teeth, Mitchell will get nowhere even if
he will be based permanently in the region starting in June.
On Iran, US and Israeli differences as they currently stand
are irreconcilable. While Obama seeks mutually respectful dialogue with the
Iranians and is prepared to offer a basket of carrots, both Netanyahu and
President Shimon Perez are threatening preemptive strikes on Iranian nuclear
facilities.
Perez admits, though, that Israel can�t proceed without a
green light from Washington, saying, �We certainly cannot go it alone, without
the US. And we definitely can�t go against the US.�
Will the two allies eventually clash? All the ingredients
are there but it�s too soon to tell. For now, the jury�s still out.
Linda
S. Heard is a British specialist writer on Middle East affairs. She welcomes
feedback and can be contacted by email at heardonthegrapevines@yahoo.co.uk.