It is difficult to know where Bush has
accomplished the most destruction, the Iraqi economy or the US economy.
In the current issue
of Manufacturing & Technology News, Washington economist Charles McMillion
observes that seven years of Bush has seen the federal debt increase by
two-thirds while US household debt doubled.
This massive
Keynesian stimulus produced pitiful economic results. Median real income has
declined. The labor force participation rate has declined. Job growth has been
pathetic, with 28 percent of the new jobs being in the government sector. All
the new private sector jobs are accounted for by private education and health care
bureaucracies, bars and restaurants. Three and a quarter million manufacturing
jobs and a half-million supervisory jobs were lost. The number of manufacturing
jobs has fallen to the level of 65 years ago.
This is the profile
of a Third World economy.
The "new
economy" has been running a trade deficit in advanced technology products
since 2002. The US trade deficit in manufactured goods dwarfs the US trade
deficit in oil. The US does not earn enough to pay its import bill, and it
doesn't save enough to finance the government's budget deficit.
To finance its
deficits, America looks to the kindness of foreigners to continue to accept the
outpouring of dollars and dollar-denominated debt.
The dollars are
accepted, because the dollar is the world's reserve currency.
At the meeting of
the World Economic Forum at Davos, Switzerland, last week, billionaire currency
trader George Soros warned that the dollar's reserve currency role was drawing
to an end: "The current crisis is not only the bust that follows the
housing boom, it's basically the end of a 60-year period of continuing credit
expansion based on the dollar as the reserve currency. Now the rest of the
world is increasingly unwilling to accumulate dollars."
If the world is
unwilling to continue to accumulate dollars, the US will not be able to finance
its trade deficit or its budget deficit. As both are seriously out of balance,
the implication is for yet more decline in the dollar's exchange value and a
sharp rise in prices.
Economists have
romanticized globalism, taking delight in the myriad of foreign components in
US brand name products. This is fine for a country whose trade is in balance or
whose currency has the reserve currency role. It is a terrible dependency for a
country such as the US that has been busy at work offshoring its economy while
destroying the exchange value of its currency.
As the dollar sheds
value and loses its privileged position as reserve currency, US living
standards will take a serious knock.
If the US government
cannot balance its budget by cutting its spending or by raising taxes, the day
when it can no longer borrow will see the government paying its bills by
printing money like a Third World banana republic. Inflation and more exchange
rate depreciation will be the order of the day.
Paul
Craig Roberts [email him] was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury in the
Reagan Administration. He is the author of Supply-Side
Revolution : An Insider's Account of Policymaking in Washington; Alienation
and the Soviet Economy and Meltdown:
Inside the Soviet Economy, and is the
co-author with Lawrence M. Stratton of The
Tyranny of Good Intentions : How Prosecutors and Bureaucrats Are Trampling the
Constitution in the Name of Justice. Click here for Peter
Brimelow�s Forbes Magazine interview with Roberts about the recent epidemic of
prosecutorial misconduct.