When trying to understand the geopolitical reality of Spain, one must
never forget the two military bases the United States actively maintains in the
country. One of which currently serves as the main transit point between the
United States, Iraq and Afghanistan.
In 2004, following a large-scale terrorist attack in the country�s
capital, attributed to Islamic terrorists, Spanish voters swept the ballot
boxes and demanded a new foreign policy. For a brief moment during the
aftershock of destruction at home, the Spanish population rose to a leading
role in the resistance against illegal wars and occupations. Soon after, Jos�
Luis Rodr�guez Zapatero became
Prime Minister and Spain�s troops were removed from Iraq, silencing angry
Spaniards.
Four years later, this transitioned and fully-fledged Western democracy,
which is yet to declare Franco�s regime as illegal, presented itself in front
of the ballot box. Mr. Zapatero fell seven seats short in the 350-member lower
house of parliament from winning the absolute majority. He now has to build a
governing coalition either with the Catalan nationalist coalition, Convergence
and Union, which won 11 seats, the Basque Nationalist Party, which won six
seats, or to rally for support from several smaller left-leaning regional
parties and the United Left. His job during this second term will be to keep
the country united, save it from economic disaster, and aligning Spain�s
foreign policy with the wishes of the people who voted him into power. All of
these will indeed be hard to fulfill.
Over the
past decade Spain's economy has been one of the strongest in Europe, with 14
years of straight growth, and a booming property market. Now the housing market
is on the brink of collapse, inflation is running at a 12 year high of 4.4
percent, and unemployment is soaring. Spain, like the United States, is going
through the end of a housing boom and the start of a credit crunch, however,
the weight of the housing sector in Spain is three times that of the housing
sector in the United States and Spain does not have a competitive enough
industry to substitute construction.
According to Eurostat, in January, Spain experienced an 8 percent
reduction in construction, the most drastic in the Euro zone. Much of Spain�s
�economic miracle� has been driven by consumption and construction.
Construction has come to represent 20 percent of the Gross Domestic Product and
20 percent of the labour market. In the last quarter of 2007, Spain's
construction giants were badly hit with combined losses totalling more than 200
million euros. While the German Commerzbank believes a recession is reaching
the country, the Association of Spanish Savings Banks, FUNCAS, has said that the
slowdown in the economy will be greater in Spain than in the rest of Europe.
In the last few years Spain has seen the
construction of 800,000 new homes per year and there is no doubt that housing has become
unaffordable for most Spaniards entering the market, just as there is no doubt
that there are over 3 million unoccupied dwellings held by speculators.
According to the Bank of Spain, properties are 40 percent over priced. To add
to this, a USB bank study says Barcelona is not far behind New York when it
comes to being one of the most expensive cities in the world. Sadly Barcelona�s
salaries do not align with the city�s cost of living.
In the last eight months, Spain's six largest banks, Santander, BBVA,
Popular, Sabadell, Bankinter and Banesto, have watched a fifth of their stock
market value (EUR 36.7 billion) being wiped off. Some 60 percent of bank loans
are property-related and a spokesman for the banking industry association AEB
says; "The number of people not repaying loans is increasing in line with
the direction of the economy." Delinquency on credit given by savings
banks to individuals and companies rose in January to 1.08 percent, the highest
since October 2000. Delinquency on mortgages grew 46.5 percent in 2007, and, in
January, it grew unexpectedly to the highest since 1994. The volume of
delinquencies in euros increased 60 percent since the beginning of 2007. The
Bank of Spain has advised the savings banks to try and reduce their exposure to
the housing market.
Unemployment,
which never fell below 8 per cent even in the good times, has risen for the
past five months in a row. It is rising fast especially amongst immigrants
working in the construction sector where it has increased by 92 percent in a
year. The increase in agriculture is even higher, at 139 percent. In the past
eight years, the Spanish population has risen from 39m to more than 45m. Mr
Zapatero legalised 700,000 illegal immigrants in his first term in office. Many
have already lost their jobs and the cooling economy has Spaniards turning
against them, especially now that 750,000 jobs are expected to be lost in the
construction sector alone over the next couple of years.
Spain's
first deputy prime minister, Maria Teresa Fernandez de la Vega, Friday said
that Spain�s economy is no cause for alarm. However, faced with a global
economy, which Western investors are comparing to the �commodity shock�
experienced during the 1970s oil crisis, Spain is going to have to face reality
and acknowledge that the country is living well over its means. People in the
country will soon understand that in the Government Bonds market, global
investors are already dumping Spanish securities, because Spain mirrors most
closely what is happening in the United States.
As for Spain�s foreign policy, indifferent of what is promoted through
the mainstream media, Spain is behaving like a good �client state.�
Militarizing and investing in the war against terror during Mr. Zapatero�s
first term in office, Spain�s military has been busy on international missions
just as it was during the times of Jos� Mar�a Aznar. As Mr. Aznar celebrates
the five years of war in Iraq, proclaiming on the BBC that he would do it all
over again, the Fundaci�n Alternativas --
of which Mr. Zapatero is member of the board of governors -- is advising the
government to reconsider the Spanish military�s 3,000 troop limits on foreign
participation.
Spain already has 258 effectives in Bosnia-Herzegovina, 778 troops in
Afghanistan and 1,100 soldiers in Lebanon stationed at the ironically named
military base "Miguel de Cervantes." More important however, is
Spain�s military presence in Kosovo where Spain currently has 585 soldiers and
14 Civil Guards. These servicemen and women were stationed under a peace
mission led by NATO. After the unilateral declaration of independence by
Kosovo, which broke all the accepted rules of international law and which the
Spanish government did not recognize, Secretary of State for Foreign Affairs
Bernardino Le�n justified Spain�s continued military presence by saying, �If
the troops had been removed, Spain could not help as it is helping now.�
However, with the Spanish Security Services, confirming that ETA is �planning a
violent summer campaign in Spain�s popular tourist destinations,� for Spain,
with regional conflicts yet to be resolved, actively collaborating with the
international community to protect by military means the territorial
segregation of another sovereign state, could be potential suicide.
The fact remains that George W. Bush has just authorized weapons to be
sent to Kosovo because its independence �favours the security of the United
States and global peace.� It is also a fact that under Mr Zapatero, Spain�s
fight against terrorism has followed a similar trajectory to that which is
currently being denounced in the United States. On January 19, Indian Roshan
Jamal Khan, along with 14 other people, was detained in Spain and charged with
plotting a terrorist attack; The Indian Ministry of External
Affairs says it still has no word from Spain on the charges that have been
pressed against Khan. Also, in a chapter dedicated to Spain,
the UN�s Manfred Nowak confirms that various NGO sources within the country,
have informed him of the fact that the Spanish security forces systematically
excommunicate suspected ETA terrorists, and that just in the first 10 months of
2007, restricted the rights of 65 arrested in the Basque Country. Of these 65
excommunicated detainees, at least 24 have denounced torture during their stay
at Police Stations.
During the times of Aznar, we often heard the famous phrase Espa�a va bien (Spain is going well), it
has been a while since we last heard it, and it is not surprising, for Spain is
not going well at all. Spain is in a lot of trouble because of the dream of a
richer and better society modelled on that of the United States. All Spanish
people can do now, apart from staging a run on the banks, is to brace
themselves and hope that Spain�s guarantor, the United States, will stay afloat
and remember to save us, even though we democratically requested to pull our
troops out of Iraq. Otherwise, Spain might as well say �adios.�
Pablo Ouziel is a sociologist and a freelance
writer based in Spain.