A front page article in the New York Times starts out
with the sentence: �The budget that President Obama proposed on Thursday is
nothing less than an attempt to end a three-decade era of economic policy
dominated by the ideas of Ronald Reagan and his supporters.� Not so much.
Ronald Reagan, despite his carefully crafted
�small-government� image, and all of the Republican presidents after him, were
big-government Republicans. They all increased government spending as a portion
of the nation�s GDP. In fact, in nominal terms, Reagan doubled the size of
government. His ideological heir, George W. Bush, crowed about the benefits of
small government, while turning on the spigot for the largest hikes in
non-defense spending since Lyndon Johnson�s Great Society program. This
spending included a $700 billion dollar bail out of banks, which included their
partial socialization. So Obama�s spending is more of the same, rather than a
sharp break with the past.
Taking a lesson from George W. Bush -- and many presidents
before him -- Obama is using a crisis to justify doing other unrelated things.
Bush used the tragedy of 9/11 to dupe the nation into an unrelated, unneeded,
disastrous, and costly invasion of Iraq. Obama is using the economic meltdown
to attempt to achieve expansion of government involvement in health, education,
and energy. The $787 billion stimulus package plus all of this extra spending
will bring the federal budget to $3.6 trillion in 2010.
The problem is that with the economic stagnation, which
slows down the government�s tax intake, and fighting two simultaneous and
expensive foreign wars, the federal government shockingly can afford only two
out of every three dollars it spends. This leaves a whopping $1.2 trillion
deficit in 2010 (with Obama�s stimulus package and Bush�s bank bailout, the deficit
in 2009 is an even more humongous 1.75 trillion). Add to this Obama�s overly
optimistic economic forecast (common among presidents, who usually want to make
the federal budget projections look better than they are) and it makes Obama�s
promise to eventually halve the post-World War II record deficits (even bigger
than Reagan�s red ink) difficult.
To reduce the deficit, in 2009 standing at an amazing 12
percent of GDP, Obama will need to look to the non-entitlement portion of the
budget, which is called the discretionary spending. The Social Security,
Medicare, and Medicaid entitlement programs are examples of the government on
autopilot -- and are very difficult to reduce.
More than half of the discretionary budget is defense
spending (slightly less than $700 billion per year), making it a big and
deserving target for cuts. Actually security spending -- which in addition to
defense spending should include the budgets of the State and Homeland Security
Departments, the Veterans Administration, and the interest on the national debt
that arises because of such security spending -- is yet a third higher, coming
in at almost $900 billion. All of these departments should also be cut back.
But since defense is by far the biggest chunk, let�s focus
on that huge pie. During the George W. Bush years, even after the Cold War had
long ended, national defense spending ballooned a whopping 78 percent.
Recently, Congressman Barney Frank (D-Mass.) made the bold proposal to cut
defense spending 25 percent. That sounds about right, and here�s how to get
started on achieving that goal.
Obama has proposed withdrawing all combat forces from Iraq
by August of 2010, but this only seems to save about $14 billion because he is
leaving them in Iraq three months longer than his campaign promise of a
16-month withdrawal, is retaining as many as 50,000 troops in that country and
simply relabeling them into �non-combat� roles, and is simultaneously
escalating the war in Afghanistan. He should withdraw from Iraq faster and
abandon the nation-building quagmire in Afghanistan, which is only inflaming
anti-U.S. Islamism in Southwest Asia and the rest of the world.
Even more boldly, Obama should realize that with the
economic meltdown, we can no longer afford the expansive U.S. overseas empire.
By withdrawing from Iraq and Afghanistan and vowing to end imperial policing
and nation-building, he could scrap the expensive plan to increase the Army and
Marine Corps by 92,000 troops. Personnel costs already make up two-thirds of
the Pentagon�s budget and adding people is expensive.
In addition, Obama should make each of the services cancel
major unneeded or excessively expensive weapons systems. Here are some
suggestions: The Air Force�s tanker aircraft and F-22 fighter, the Navy�s
Littoral Combat Ship, the Marine Corps� V-22 tilt-rotor aircraft for
transporting troops, the Army�s Future Combat System (a fleet of fighting
vehicles needed for fighting a future great power rival, which doesn�t exist),
and the Joint Strike Fighter, a fighter that the Navy, Marine Corps, and Air
Force are working on together.
Although Obama�s promise to eventually cut the deficits
seems problematic with all of the added stimulus and other spending,
surprisingly most modern day Democratic presidents have been better at cutting
deficits and government spending as a portion of GDP than Republicans, who
usually increase government spending as a portion of GDP, thus rendering their
perennial tax cuts to be fake. Because Obama has a tough row to hoe to equal
his Democratic compatriots Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton at deficit reduction,
he needs to start with big cuts in the defense budget.
Ivan
Eland is Director of the Center
on Peace & Liberty at The Independent Institute and Assistant
Editor of The
Independent Review. Dr. Eland is a graduate of Iowa
State University and received an M.B.A. in applied economics and Ph.D. in
national security policy from George Washington University. He has been
Director of Defense Policy Studies at the Cato Institute, Principal Defense
Analyst at the Congressional Budget Office, Evaluator-in-Charge (national
security and intelligence) for the U.S. General Accounting Office, and
Investigator for the House Foreign Affairs Committee and Principal Defense
Analyst at the Congressional Budget Office. He is author of the books, The Empire
Has No Clothes: U.S. Foreign Policy Exposed, and Putting
�Defense� Back into U.S. Defense Policy.