Upon Barack Obama�s election, the Russians made threats to
U.S. allies over their acceptance of a U.S. missile defense system. Also,
Russia recently sent its first large military force to Latin America since the
end of the Cold War to participate in naval exercises off the Venezuelan coast.
Is this a flagrant test of a new and inexperienced president, much as Nikita
Khrushchev tested the neophyte John F. Kennedy when he first took office in
1961?
More likely, Russian behavior is merely putting the new
president on notice that Russia is stronger now and cannot be kicked around
anymore -- as it was during the Clinton and George W. Bush administrations. Meanwhile,
the lame duck Bush crowd is still polishing its boots to take another whack.
Despite investigations by human rights groups indicating
that Georgia started the recent Russian-Georgian war and parliamentary
testimony by Erosi Kitsmarishvili, a former Georgian ambassador to Moscow and
confidant of Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili, that Georgia initiated the
conflict, the Bush administration had the chutzpah to demand that its NATO
allies admit Georgia and the Ukraine into the alliance without meeting the
usual requirements of defense reform and improved military capabilities. The
main reason that Georgia started the war by attacking the breakaway region of
South Ossetia, according to Kitsmarishvili, was that Saakashvili thought he had
U.S. backing for this aggressive tack. If given a NATO security shield, the
belligerent Saakashvili might become even more reckless and involve the United
States in a confrontation with a nuclear-armed power.
The Russian-Georgian war, however, should have made both
Ukraine and Georgia leery of depending entirely on a faraway nation for
security, given the reality of Russia�s local conventional military superiority
and nuclear deterrent. Ultimately, if it came down to sacrificing U.S. cities
in a nuclear war with Russia to save these two non-strategic countries, the
United States would most assuredly balk. The Ukrainian public has apparently
faced this reality -- souring on NATO membership -- and the tottering Ukrainian
government can hardly push through Ukraine�s entry into the alliance even if
the United States manages to bludgeon the reluctant Germany, Italy, France,
Spain and other NATO allies to agree to admit both nations.
When Russia was weaker, in the 1990s and during the current
decade, the U.S. pushed the potentially hostile NATO alliance up to Russia�s
borders, established bases in the former Soviet states of Central Asia to
contain Russia and China, detached Kosovo from Russia�s Serbian ally, and
rerouted energy pipelines around Russian territory. These aggressive actions in
Russia�s sphere of influence humiliated Russia and have led to
�in-your-hemisphere� Russian naval exercises with Venezuela and threats against
U.S. allies that will host U.S. missile defenses on their territories.
Some U.S. media outlets have claimed that Russia is
beginning to behave as if the Cold War were still afoot. These sources are
blind to the fact that in U.S. policy circles, the Cold War mentality was never
abandoned. After promising Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev that if Germany were
reunited within NATO, the alliance would not expand, the United States then
broke this promise and attempted to grab all the territory in Europe that it
could before the Russian bear once again became strong. That has not happened
and the humiliated and angry Russian public is pressing Russia�s leaders to
take a strong position vis-�-vis the United States.
Threats against allies accepting missile defense hardware
and naval exercises in the U.S. sphere of influence are Russia�s way of
signaling that further NATO expansion to include Russia�s key neighbors will
meet stiff resistance. The up-to-now oblivious U.S. government needs to finally
heed these warnings. More important, the incoming Obama administration and the
U.S. public should ponder whether they want to ultimately hold their cities
hostage to nuclear holocaust to preserve the territorial integrity of these two
faraway and non-strategic states. The answer should be an emphatic �no.�
Ivan
Eland is Director of the Center
on Peace & Liberty at The Independent Institute and Assistant
Editor of The
Independent Review. Dr. Eland is a graduate of Iowa
State University and received an M.B.A. in applied economics and Ph.D. in
national security policy from George Washington University. He has been
Director of Defense Policy Studies at the Cato Institute, Principal Defense
Analyst at the Congressional Budget Office, Evaluator-in-Charge (national security
and intelligence) for the U.S. General Accounting Office, and Investigator for
the House Foreign Affairs Committee and Principal Defense Analyst at the
Congressional Budget Office. He is author of the books, The Empire
Has No Clothes: U.S. Foreign Policy Exposed, and Putting
�Defense� Back into U.S. Defense Policy.