What�s clear from the behavior of European financial markets
over the past two weeks is that the dramatic stories of financial meltdown and
panic are deliberately being used by certain influential factions in and
outside the EU to shape the future face of global banking in the wake of the US
subprime and asset-backed security (ABS) debacle.
The most interesting development in recent days has been the
unified and strong position of the German chancellor, finance minister,
Bundesbank and coalition government, all opposing an American-style EU
Superfund bank bailout. Meanwhile, US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson pursues
his crony capitalism to the detriment of the nation and benefit of his cronies
in the financial world. It�s an explosive cocktail that need not have been.
Stock market falls of 7 to 10 percent a day make for
dramatic news headlines and serve to foster a broad sense of unease bordering
on panic among ordinary citizens. The events of the last two weeks among EU
banks since the dramatic state rescues of Hypo Real Estate, Dexia and Fortis
banks, and the announcement by UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Alistair Darling
of a radical shift in policy in dealing with troubled UK banks, have begun to
reveal the outline of a distinctly different European response to what in
effect is a crisis �Made in USA.�
There is
serious ground to believe that US Goldman Sachs ex CEO Henry Paulson, as
Treasury secretary, is not stupid. There is also serious ground to believe that
he is actually moving according to a well-thought-out long-term strategy.
Events as they are now unfolding in the EU tend to confirm that. As one senior
European banker put it to me in private discussion, �There is an all-out war
going on between the United States and the EU to define the future face of
European banking.�
In this
banker�s view, the ongoing attempt of Italian Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi
and France�s Nicholas Sarkosy to get an EU common �fund,� with perhaps upwards
of $300 billion to rescue troubled banks, would de facto play directly into
Paulson and the US establishment�s long-term strategy, by in effect weakening
the banks and repaying US-originated asset backed securities held by EU banks.
Using panic to centralize power
As I
document in my forthcoming book, Power
of Money: The Rise and Decline of the American Century, in every major US
financial panic since at least the Panic of 1835, the titans of Wall Street -- most
especially until 1929, the House of JP Morgan -- have deliberately triggered
bank panics behind the scenes in order to consolidate their grip on US banking.
The private banks used the panics to control Washington policy, including the
exact definition of the private ownership of the new Federal Reserve in 1913,
and to consolidate their control over industry, such as US Steel, Caterpillar,
Westinghouse and the like. They are, in short, old hands at such financial
warfare to increase their power.
Now they
must do something similar on a global scale to be able to continue to dominate
global finance, the heart of the power of the American Century.
That
process of using panics to centralize their private power created an extremely
powerful, concentration of financial and economic power in a few private hands,
the same hands which created the influential US foreign policy think-tank, the
Council on Foreign Relations in 1921 to guide the ascent of the American
Century, as Time founder Henry Luce called it in a pivotal 1941 essay.
It�s
becoming increasingly obvious that people like Henry Paulson, who by the way
was one of the most aggressive practitioners of the ABS revolution on Wall
Street before becoming Treasury secretary, are operating on motives beyond
their over-proportional sense of greed. Paulson�s own background is interesting
in that context. Back in the early 1970s Paulson started his career working for
a notorious man named John Ehrlichman, Nixon�s ruthless domestic adviser
who created the Plumbers� Unit during the Watergate era to silence opponents of
the president, and was left by Nixon to �twist in the wind� for it in prison.
Paulson
seems to have learned from his White House mentor. As co-chairman of Goldman
Sachs, according to a New York Times account, in 1998 he forced out his
co-chairman, Jon Corzine �in what amounted to a coup.�
It is
becoming clear Paulson, and his friends at Citigroup and JP Morgan Chase, had a
strategy, as did the godfather of asset backed securitization and deregulated
banking, former Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan, as I have detailed in my earlier
series, Financial Tsunami, Parts I-V.
Knowing
that at a certain juncture the pyramid of trillions of dollars of dubious subprime
and other high risk home mortgage-based securities would come falling down,
they apparently determined to spread the so-called �toxic waste� ABS securities
as globally as possible, in order to seduce the big global banks of the world,
most especially of the EU, into their honey trap.
They had
help. In recent testimony under oath by Eric Dinallo, the superintendent of the
New York Insurance Departmen,t at the AIG bailout oversight hearing into the
AIG rescue by Paulson, Dinallo said that funding cutbacks in recent years
directed by the Bush-Cheney administration had reduced the responsible
department that should regulate or watch over the $80 trillion in asset backed
securities (ABS), which included the toxic subprime and Alt-A mortgage
securities and much more. The Bush administration cut the staff of more than 100
people down to one -- yes that was not a typo. One as in �uno.�
Was that
just ideological budget cutting fervor, or was it deliberate? Was former
Goldman Sachs� man, the man who convinced the president to hire Paulson, Bush�s
former director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), Joshua Bolten,
now the president�s chief of staff, responsible for insuring there was no
effective government oversight of the exploding securitization of mortgage
assets?
These are
perhaps some questions which the good congressmen ought to be asking people
like Henry Paulson and Josh Bolten, and not such red herring questions as how
large Richard Fuld�s bonus pay at Lehman was. Are Mr Bolten�s fingerprints on
the corpse here? And why is no one questioning the role of Paulson as CEO of
Goldman Sachs, then the most aggressive promoter of exotic and other asset
backed securitization products on Wall Street?
It now
would appear that the Paulson strategy was to use a crisis -- a crisis that was
pre-programmed and predictable as far back as 2003 when Josh Bolten became head
of OMB -- when it exploded, to panic the more conservative European Union
governments into rushing to the rescue of US toxic waste assets.
Were that
to have happened, it would in the process destroy what was left of sound EU
banking and financial institutions, bringing the world one step closer to a
global money market controlled by Paulson�s cronies -- US-style crony
capitalism. Crony capitalism is certainly appropriate here. Paulson�s
predecessor at both Goldman Sachs and at Treasury, Robert Rubin, liked to
accuse the Asian bankers of Thailand, Indonesia and other lands hit with the
speculative attacks of US-financed hedge funds in 1997 of �crony capitalism,� leaving
the impression the crisis was homegrown in Asia and not the result of a
deliberate executed attack by US-financed financial institutions to eliminate
the Asia Tiger model among other goals, and turn Asia into the funder of US
debt.
Interesting
to note is that Rubin is now a director of Citigroup, obviously one of
Paulson�s crony bank �survivors,� and the bank which to date has had to write
off the largest sum in toxic waste securitized assets.
If the
allegation of preplanned panic, a la the Panic of 1907, is accurate, and it is
a big if, then the plan worked . . . up to a point. That point came over the
weekend of October 3, coincidentally the national unification holiday of Germany.
Germany breaks with US model
In closed
door talks well into the evening of Sunday October 5, Alex Weber the hard-nosed
head of the Bundesbank, BaFin head Jochen Sanio and representatives of the
Berlin coalition government of Chancellor Merkel came up with a rescue package
for Hypo Real Estate of a nominal �50 billion. However, behind the dramatic
headline number, as Weber pointed out in a September 29 letter to Finance
Minister Peer Steinbr�ck that has been made public, not only did the private
German banks have to come up with 60 percent of that figure, the state with 40
percent. But also, given the careful manner in which the government, in
cooperation with the Bundesbank and BaFin, structured the rescue credit
agreement, the maximum possible loss, in a worst case scenario, to the state
would be limited to �5.7 billion, not �30 billion as many believed. It�s still
real money but not the blank check for $700 billion that a US Congress under
duress and a few days of falling stock market prices agreed to give Paulson.
The swift
action by Finance Minister Steinbr�ck to fire the head of HRE, in stark
contrast to Wall Street where the same criminal fraudsters remain at their
desks reaping huge bonuses, indicates as well a different approach. But that
does not cut to the heart of the issue. The situation of HRE arose as noted
previously, from excesses in a wholly-owned daughter bank of HRE subsidiary
DEPFA in Ireland,
an EU country known for its liberal loose regulation and low tax regime.
A British policy shift
In the UK, after the
costly and foolish bailout of Northern Rock earlier in the year, the government
of Prime Minister Gordon Brown has just announced a dramatic change in policy
in the direction of Germany�s
position. Britain�s banks will get an unprecedented 50 billion-pound (�64
billion) government lifeline and emergency loans from the Bank of England.
The
government will buy preference shares from Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc,
Barclays Plc and at least six other banks, and provide about 250 billion pounds
of loan guarantees to refinance debt, the Treasury said. The Bank of England
will make at least 200 billion pounds available. The plan doesn�t specify how
much each bank will get.
That means
the UK Government will at least partially nationalize its most important
international banks, rather than buy their bad loans as under the unworkable
Paulson plan. Under such an approach, costs to UK taxpayers once the crisis abates
and business returns to more normal conditions, the government can sell the
state shares back to a healthy bank at perhaps a nice profit to the Treasury.
The Brown Government has apparently realized that the blanket guarantees it
gave to Northern Rock and Bradford & Bingley merely opened the floodgates
of government costs without changing the problem.
The new
nationalization policy is a dramatic contrast to the Paulson ideological �free
market� approach of buying the worthless bonds held by the select banks Paulson
chooses to save, rather than recapitalize those banks to allow them to continue
to function.
The battle lines drawn
What has
emerged are the outlines of two opposite approaches to the unfolding crisis.
The Paulson plan is now clearly part of a project to create three colossal
global financial giants -- Citigroup, JP MorganChase and, of course, Paulson�s
own Goldman Sachs, now conveniently enough a bank. Having successfully used
fear and panic to wrestle a $700 billion bailout from the US taxpayers,
now the big three will try to use their unprecedented muscle to ravage European
banks in the years ahead. So long as the world�s largest financial credit
rating agencies -- Moody�s and Standard & Poors -- are untouched by the
scandals and congressional hearings, the reorganized US financial power of
Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and JP Morgan Chase could potentially regroup and
advance their global agenda over the coming several years, walking over the
ashes of a bankrupt American economy made bankrupt by their follies.
By agreeing
on a strategy of nationalizing what EU finance ministers deem are �EU banks too
systemically strategic to fail,� while guaranteeing bank deposits, the largest
EU governments, Germany and the UK, in contrast to the US, have opted for what
will in the longer run allow European banking giants to withstand the
anticipated financial attacks from the likes of Goldman or Citigroup.
The
dramatic selloff of stocks across European bourses and across Asia
is in reality a secondary and far less critical issue. According to market
reports, the selloff is being driven mainly by US hedge funds desperate to
raise cash as they realize the US
economy is going into economic depression, that they are exposed and that the
Paulson Plan does nothing to address that.
A
functioning solvent banking and interbank system is far the more strategic
issue. The ABS debacle was �Made in New
York.� Nonetheless, its effects have to be isolated
and viable EU banks defended in the public interest, not just the interest of
Paulson�s banking cronies as in the US. Unregulated offshore vehicles
such as hedge funds, unregulated banking, unregulated insurance all went into
building the $80 trillion ABS Tsunami as I have called it. Certain more
conservative EU hands are not about to buy the remedy being offered by Washington.
The
coordinated interest rate cut by the ECB and other European central banks while
grabbing headlines, in effect do little to address the real problem: banks fear
to lend to each other until their solvency is assured.
By
initiating state partial nationalizations across the EU, and rejecting the
Berlusconi/Sarkozy bailout scheme, the governments of the EU, interestingly
enough this time led by the German, are laying a more sound foundation to
emerge from the crisis.
Stay tuned,
it�s far from over. This is a fight for the survival of the American Century
which has been built since 1939 on the twin pillars of American financial
dominance and American military dominance -- Full Spectrum Dominance.
Asian
banks, badly burned by Wall Street�s manipulated 1997-98 Asia Crisis, are
apparently very little exposed to the US problem. European banks are
exposed in different ways, but none so serious as in the US banking
world.
F. William Engdahl is
author of A Century of War: Anglo-American Oil Politics and the New World Order
(Pluto Press), and Seeds of Destruction: The Hidden Agenda of Genetic
Manipulation (www.globalresearch.ca). He may be contacted through his website, www.engdahl.oilgeopolitics.net.