The collapse of world socialism, the rise of the high speed
Internet, a bought-and-paid-for US government, and a million dollar cap on
executive pay that is not performance related are permitting greedy and
disloyal corporate executives, Wall Street, and large retailers to dismantle the ladders of
upward mobility that made America an �opportunity society.�
In the 21st century, the US economy has been able to create
net new jobs only in nontradable
domestic services, such as waitresses, bartenders, government workers, hospital
orderlies, and retail clerks. (Nontradable services are �hands on� services that cannot be sold as exports, such as
haircuts, waiting a table, fixing a drink.)
Corporations can boost their bottom lines, shareholder
returns, and executive
performance bonuses by arbitraging labor across national boundaries. High
value-added jobs in manufacturing and in tradable services can be relocated
from developed countries to developing countries
where wages and salaries are much lower. In the United States, the high
value-added jobs that remain are increasingly filled by lower paid foreigners
brought in on work visas.
When manufacturing jobs began leaving the US, no-think economists
gave their assurances that this was a good thing. Grimy jobs that required
little education would be replaced with new high tech service jobs requiring
university degrees. The American work force would be elevated. The US would do
the innovating, design, engineering, financing and marketing, and poor countries such as
China would manufacture the goods that Americans invented. High-tech
services were touted as the new source of value-added that would keep the
American economy preeminent in the world.
The assurances that economists gave made no sense. If it
pays corporations to ship out high value-added manufacturing jobs, it pays them
to ship out high value-added service jobs. And that is exactly what US
corporations have done.
Automobile magazine (August 2008) reports that last
March Chrysler closed
its Pacifica Advance Product Design Center in Southern California.
Pacifica�s demise followed closings and downsizings of Southern California
design studios by Italdesign, ASC, Porsche, Nissan, and Volvo. Only three of
GM�s 11 design studios remain in the US.
According to Eric Noble, president of The Car Lab, an
automotive consultancy, �Advanced
studios want to be where the new frontier is. So in China, studios are
popping up like rabbits.�
The idea is nonsensical that the US can remain the font of
research, innovation, design, and engineering while the country ceases to make
things. Research and product development invariably follow manufacturing. Now
even business schools that were cheerleaders for offshoring of US jobs are
beginning to wise up. In a recent report, Next Generation Offshoring:
The Globalization of Innovation [PDF],
Duke University�s Fuqua School of Business finds that product
development is moving to China to support the manufacturing operations that
have located there.
The study, reported in Manufacturing & Technology
News, acknowledges that �labor arbitrage strategies continue to be
key drivers of offshoring,� a conclusion that I reached a number of
years ago. Moreover, the study concludes, jobs offshoring is no longer mainly
associated with locating IT services and call centers in low wage countries. Jobs
offshoring has reached maturity, �and
now the growth is centered around product and process innovation.�
According to the Fuqua School of Business report, in just
one year, from 2005 to 2006, offshoring of product development jobs increased
from an already significant base by 40 to 50 percent. Over the next one and
one-half to three years, �growth in
offshoring of product development projects is forecast to increase by 65
percent for R&D and by more than 80 percent for engineering services and
product design-projects.�
More than half of US companies are now engaged in jobs
offshoring, and the practice is no longer confined to large corporations. Small
companies have discovered that �offshoring
of innovation projects can significantly leverage limited investment dollars.�
It turns out that product development, which was to be
America�s replacement for manufacturing
jobs, is the second largest business function that is offshored.
According to the report, the offshoring of finance, accounting, and human
resource jobs is increasing at a 35 percent annual rate. The study observes
that �the high growth rates for the
offshoring of core functions of value creation is a remarkable development.�
In brief, the United States is losing its economy. However,
a business school cannot go so far as to admit that, because its financing is
dependent on outside sources that engage in offshoring. Instead, the study
claims, absurdly, that the massive movement of jobs abroad that the study
reports are causing no job loss in the US: �Contrary to various claims, fears about loss of high-skill jobs in
engineering and science are unfounded.� The study then contradicts this
claim by reporting that as more scientists and engineers are hired abroad, �fewer jobs are being eliminated onshore.�
Since 2005, the study reports, there has been a 48 percent drop in the onshore
jobs losses caused by offshore projects.
One wonders at the competence of the Fuqua School of
Business. If a 40-50 percent increase in offshored product development jobs, a
65 percent increase in offshored R&D jobs, and a more
than 80 percent increase in offshored engineering services and product
design-projects jobs do not constitute US job loss, what does?
Academia�s lack of independent financing means that its
researchers can only tell the facts by denying them.
The study adds more cover for corporate America�s rear end
by repeating the false assertion that US firms are moving jobs offshore because
of a shortage of scientists and engineers in America. A correct statement would
be that the offshoring of science, engineering and professional service jobs is
causing fewer American students to pursue these occupations, which formerly
comprised broad ladders of upward mobility. The Bureau of Labor Statistics�
nonfarm payroll jobs statistics show no sign of job growth in these
careers. The best that can be surmised is that there are replacement jobs as
people retire.
The offshoring of the US economy is destroying the dollar�s
role as reserve currency, a role that is the source of American power and
influence. The US trade deficit resulting from offshored US goods and services
is too massive to be sustainable. Already the once all-mighty dollar has lost
enormous purchasing power against oil, gold, and other currencies. In the 21st
century, the American people have been placed on a path that can only end in a
substantial reduction in US living standards for every American except the corporate elite, who earn
tens of millions of dollars in bonuses by excluding Americans from the
production of the goods and services that they consume.
What can be done? The US economy has been seriously
undermined by offshoring. The damage might not be reparable. Possibly, the
American market and living standards could be rescued by tariffs that offset
the lower labor and compliance costs abroad.
Another alternative, suggested by Ralph Gomory, would
be to tax US corporations on the basis of the percentage of their value added
that occurs in the US. The greater the value added to a company�s product in
America, the lower the tax rate on the profits.
These sensible suggestions will be demonized by ideological �free market� economists and opposed
by the offshoring corporations, whose swollen profits allow them to hire �free market� economists as shills and
to elect representatives to serve their interests.
The current recession with its layoffs will mask the
continuing deterioration in employment and career outlooks for American university
graduates. The highly skilled US work force is being gradually transformed
into the domestic service workforce characteristic of third world economies.
Paul
Craig Roberts [email
him] was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury during President Reagan�s
first term. He was Associate Editor of the Wall Street Journal. He has held
numerous academic appointments, including the William E. Simon Chair, Center
for Strategic and International Studies, Georgetown University, and
Senior Research Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University. He was awarded
the Legion of Honor by French President Francois Mitterrand. He is the author
of Supply-Side
Revolution : An Insider�s Account of Policymaking in Washington; Alienation
and the Soviet Economy and Meltdown:
Inside the Soviet Economy, and is the co-author with Lawrence M.
Stratton of The
Tyranny of Good Intentions : How Prosecutors and Bureaucrats Are Trampling the
Constitution in the Name of Justice. Click here for
Peter Brimelow�s Forbes Magazine interview with Roberts about the recent
epidemic of prosecutorial misconduct.