It was George
Santayana who felt patience and courage are necessary human virtues to our
existence. And for many of us waiting for the impeachment of George W. Bush is
certainly very trying with our patience . . . virtuosity aside.
Congressional
legislators of both parties probably have it right to keep impeachment off the
table. It would be a very unpopular thing to bring about when much of the
nation, politicos as well as citizens, have been complicit in the happenings in
Washington either by condoning the administration�s deceit, or by being part of
it. Americans are just not quite ready to put themselves on trial. Accusing
Bush and Cheney of high crimes and misdemeanors on the Iraq war is nothing
short of passing sentence on ourselves.
Some of us can
clamor to the four winds for the malefic-duo�s impeachment, but we know that it
won�t do any good. We can reason that it might be the only way to get our
credibility restored in the world, and our sense of morality retrieved, but the
truth is that people don�t seem to much care. We can also appeal to our inner
humanity by pointing to the pain, death and destruction brought about by these
wars of choice that we are engaging in, but the compassion strings simply won�t
play in tune with our pharisaical congregations during Sunday�s sermons.
Continuous deceit
and criminality in government just don�t seem to warrant a high profile trial
in the United States these days, and a handful of righteous Congress people
will never garner the support of their peers to get the vehicle started; much
less to get anywhere with it.
There is, however,
a sure-fire way to get Americans up in arms. All that�s needed is a reality
check on the economy, and that may not be long in coming. And when that light
goes on, people will forget their share of the blame, setting aside any
thoughts of greed and waste, and start pointing fingers at the Bush
administration that got us there. Bush could easily become the Herbert Hoover
of 2008 sans the brains or the compassion, even if the recession does not go
into full bloom until the November election.
A river of blood
that has been Iraq appears not to have fazed Americans in a big way, but waking
up to an economic bloodbath in late 2007 or early 2008 could easily enlist over
two-thirds of the population in rebellion against a government that has been
not only deceitful but incompetent and wasteful as well. At that time, even if
Bush has only a few months left in his presidency, there will be calls for his
head to roll . . . and there could be a major popular outcry for impeachment;
and many of the religious, social and fiscal conservatives will repudiate him .
. . if for no other reason than self-preservation.
The Fed is still painting
a rosy, if cautious, picture of the short-term economy, somehow dismissing, or
at the very least downplaying, the true impact that the housing slump will have
on the overall economy. But just as housing inflated to unsustainable values
with 5, 10 or 15 trillion dollars of �hot air,� it will deflate much the same
way, and we could be in for more than just a 3-5 year down cycle, experiencing
something similar to Japan�s real estate purge which lasted over a decade. Home
ownership, politically-touted for reaching almost 69 percent . . . is a wrong
statistic to give when in �real equity� of land-brick-and-mortar actually owned
(without fluff) Americans likely had a greater overall stake in their homes
four decades ago.
Deceit as to the
real state of the economy has been comparable to that given by the White House
and Pentagon on the war, with both Fed and administration �ideologically�
joining forces to achieve a form of political stability likely to bring dire
future results. And in terms of economic blame, high crimes and misdemeanors
were committed not just by Bush Son, but also by the Fed�s pontiff of almost
two decades, saxophonist turned economic-wizard, Alan Greenspan.
A housing price
meltdown is likely to occur by late summer this year, with repercussions in
Wall Street within the following two quarters as corporate earnings start to
deteriorate with little or no geographical padding for multi-nationals since
the recession will have a global face. When all that happens, there will be no
economic tools left for the Fed to use, or misuse, and fiscal and monetary
policy won�t be able to save the day; or at least postpone the inevitable a
little longer as it has been doing in the past, allowing crises to be passed on
to future generations.
Without trying to
appear as a latter-day Nostradamus on economic forecasting, I have had a
contrarian view for at least a decade from that espoused by most mainstream
economists, the American Association of Realtors and �for the most part�
laughable monotonic choir at CNBC. But if results are in the pudding, I will
say that I had the dot-com bubble burst perfectly pegged in both timing and
severity almost two years before; and it�s starting to look as if my
predictions two years ago on the current housing fiasco are happening true to
course. I also indicated at that time that its sibling, commercial real estate,
would undergo a comparable collapse two quarters thereafter in an arena that
will appear even bloodier.
On that sad
economic note, however, we will find some form of consolation by getting
Messrs. Bush and Cheney impeached, and perhaps even some members of their
retinue of political and corporate hacks indicted. And we might even find the
courage and display the patriotic cojones to turn over some of these
folks, who have masked themselves as public servants, to the International
Criminal Tribunal at The Hague to be tried for war crimes. That will go a long
way toward restoring our credibility with the international community, and
serve as a moral down payment on what we owe the Iraqis for the crimes we have
perpetrated against them.
Patience and
courage, George Santayana asks of us to attain virtuosity. We�re trying.
� 2007 Ben Tanosborn
Ben
Tanosborn, columnist, poet and writer, resides in Vancouver, Washington (USA),
where he is principal of a business consulting firm. Contact him at ben@tanosborn.com.