The prospect of creating a cartel by major gas-producing
giants has become a new source of concern among industrialized nations and
energy-hungry developing countries.
The Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF), which was
established in 2003 to facilitate information exchanges among its members, put
on its agenda discussing a plan to launch a body similar to the Organization of
Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) during a meeting in Doha early this week.
It is understandable to see how the world�s largest importer
of natural gas, Japan, feels worrried about such initiatives. Upon learning of
the propose to establish a gas cartel, the Japanese Economy, Trade, and Industry
Ministry dispatched a ranking official to Qatar to convey his government�s
concerns about the plan.
Basically, energy has long been the Achilles heel of the
explosive economic growth and development of East Asian countries, Japan especially,
and the rise of new huge energy-consuming customers has clouded the outlook of
a long-term supply of a stable and cheap energy.
Global consumption of energy will increase by more than 50
percent during the first quarter of the current century. Oil and gas will account
for 65 percent of world energy in 2025, and prosperity, success, and the future
health of Asian economic powers rest on their ability to import more and more
of these hydrocarbons.
The industrial world could finally overcome the negative
consequences of the oil shocks of the last century and adopt policies to
counterbalance any possible threat from OPEC.
Are the energy-consuming giants prepared to experience gas
shocks? How could it be possible to counterbalance the perils of a gas cartel
to these countries?
Creating a cartel would strengthen cooperation among natural
gas-producing countries amid a worldwide rise in demand, and increase their
influence in determining supply and price.
Sharing the same bed but dreaming differently, Russia and
Iran, the first and the second biggest natural gas-producers respectively, have
taken the lead in establishing the cartel that, if realized, would account for
more than 60 percent of the world�s natural gas production, and enhance their
international standing as two key energy suppliers.
Qatar and Algeria, as the world�s third and eighth-largest
gas producers respectively, have also given their endorsement to the plan. They
all know that an alliance of gas-producing nations would enable them to decisively
affect negotiations on prices and the acquisition of concession rights.
What makes the industrialized world and consuming countries
worried is that any agreement on this proposed cartel could affect gas supplies
to importing countries and keep the prices high, thereby undermining their
energy security.
Shirzad Azad is an East-West Asian Relations
researcher at the Graduate School of International Politics, Economics and
Communication, Aoyama Gakuin University, Tokyo, Japan.