International affairs experts and political commentators
have focused in the last few weeks on President Bush�s decision to send more
armed forces to Iraq. Washington, however, has been engaged quietly in
redesigning the political landscape to the detriment of the future democratic
order and the welfare of the people there. The recent comment made by Vice
President Dick Cheney (ABC News, Feb. 23): �We have made significant progress
in Iraq,� is more likely linked to this political rearrangement in Baghdad.
As part of President Bush�s new security plan for Baghdad,
troops regularly raid houses and surround entire districts. These activities
are supposed to disrupt terrorists and establish a trust between Iraqis and the
foreign troops. But the intrusive and bold confrontation with Iraqis and the
blunt violation of the sanctity of homes have inflamed people and intensified
their frustrations.
Many Iraqis question the rationality of the plan and suggest
that the real objective is to reshuffle and redraw the political map in Iraq in
order to strategically strengthen those who unconditionally support the
occupation and weaken those who seek a sovereign, free, and democratic Iraq.
There are those, too, who claim that the plan does not discriminate among
Iraqis and treats all as potential criminals (this view is reinforced by the
comprehensive search of homes and districts).
Surprisingly, the initial implementation of the Security
Plan for Baghdad is accompanied by the reappearance on the political stage of
seasoned former exiled politicians. Two of Washington most trusted allies have
suddenly returned to Baghdad: former Prime Minister, Ayad Alawy, and Ahmed
Chalabi, along with adamant supporters of the invasion, Adnan Bachachi and Saad
Salah Jabr.
Vice President Tarq al-Hashmi and Adnan al-delami, two of
the most vocal sectarian leaders, have assertively and boldly intensified their
political pronouncements. Most of the patriotic forces, especially the Sadrists
and Arab nationalists have been silenced, and terrorists allegedly associated
with al-Qaeda have increased their attacks against ordinary Iraqis in Baghdad
and surrounding areas.
Furthermore, an office belonging to the United Kurdish
Patriotic Party led by Jalal al-Talabani, the President of Iraq, was bombed by
American troops in the north. Though a military spokesperson indicated the
attack was an accident, Iraqi politicians viewed it as a powerful message to
Talabani -- Washington is not happy with his recent friendly gestures to Syria
and Iran.
The most serious and unexpected development, however, was
the detention of Amar al-Hakim, the eldest son of Abdul-Aziz al-Hakim, on
February 23. The latter is considered one of the closest allies to
neoconservatives and is the leader of the United Iraqi Alliance and the Supreme
Council for the Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI). Just before the invasion of
Iraq, al-Hakim was instrumental in forming a coalition of exiled Iraqis to
facilitate the invasion of Iraq. His immediate role, after the invasion, has
been invaluable.
In fact, al-Hakim has been one of the most faithful politicians to Washington�s dictates
and has wholeheartedly supported the neoconservatives� plan for a weak,
polarized, and fragmented Iraq. The neoconservatives admire, too, al-Hakim�s
other weaknesses, especially his ill feelings toward Iraqi patriots and those
who aspire to a unified democratic Iraq. However, the neoconservatives, while
viewing al-Hakim as instrumental in promoting their message, co-opting some
religious figures, and marginalizing the patriotic forces within the religious
authority, have also looked at him with suspicion, due to his long stay in Iran
after he was exiled in the early 1980s.
Unlike his father, Amar al-Hakim is an articulate and
soft-spoken person. Despite his aristocratic attitude, he seems to relate, much
better than his father did, to ordinary citizens. Had he not followed his
father�s blind commitment to the occupation and the division of Iraq, he could
have had a promising political future. Recently, he has realized that the
political choices that his father and SCIRI have made limit the political
possibilities for him and essentially that his father has mortgaged the son�s
fortune to the presence of foreign troops and the prolonging of the occupation.
Critics, therefore, have questioned the rationale for his
detention and the neoconservatives� hidden objectives. They argue that American
troops would not embark on any politically sensitive act without a prior
approval from Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad. These critics are aware that
Khalilzad is not an ordinary diplomat or common neoconservative. Khalilzad was
one of the few architects of the invasion of Iraq and was trained by the best
neoconservative strategists, such as Vice President Dick Cheney and Paul
Wolfowitz. That is, Khalilzad would not take or approve an action without
deliberate planning.
The New York Times
reported (Feb. 24) that �American troops had been lying in wait to apprehend
the Hakim convoy as it drove into Iraq.� Critics point to three possible
reasons for the seizure of Amar al-Hakim. One of the most common justifications
is that the neoconservatives are testing whether al-Hakim senior and his
organization, SCIRI, are completely loyal to and behind the neoconservatives�
plan for Iraq.
These critics argue, however, that the neoconservatives,
especially Khalilzad, were satisfied that al-Hakim senior had been tested
several times and had showed an exceptional conformity. The latest case, the
critics assert, was when the American troops, about two months ago, raided
al-Hakim�s Baghdad compound and apprehended two Iranians who were his dinner
guests. Though the Iranians were on an official visit and were invited by the
president of Iraq, al-Hakim behaved as though things were not of his concern. The
incident raised many questions, but it evidences al-Hakim�s loyalty and
willingness to cooperate. The seizure of his son is again aimed to measure the
depth of his loyalty.
The second argument suggests that the neoconservatives have
made a strategic decision that the United Iraqi Alliance, in general, has
become an obstacle to the implementation of their project and has been reluctant
to eliminate forever the Sadrist Movement or to go along with the project for
repealing the de-Baathification law. The latter is intended to permit
influential Baathists and some members of Saddam�s regime back into the
government and to minimize any consequential role for Prime Minister al-Malaki
in deciding the course of action in Iraq.
The most plausible explanation, however, for the detention
of al-Hakim junior is that the neoconservatives have always viewed the Iraqi
venture as their own project. On this matter, they are not willing to
compromise with any one either at home or in Iraq. Those who advocate this
point indicate that lately al-Hakim senior has started, after his last meeting
with President Bush, to behave as though he is the ultimate arbiter in the
Iraqi political game. Thus, by arresting his son, the neoconservatives seek to
demonstrate to him that they, alone, are in charge in charting Iraq�s future.
The neoconservatives, therefore, are rethinking their
alliances with Iraqi politicians and organizations. In this emerging mapping of
alliances there is no place for patriotism and individual pride and dignity. In
fact, the detention of al-Hakim junior. is precisely aimed to send a clear and
powerful political message to all Iraqis: no one in Iraq is out of our reach
and punishment.
Abbas
J. Ali, Ph.D., is a professor and director in the School of International
Management, Indiana University of Pennsylvania.