Iran believes that
it is endowed with abundant crude oil and natural gas reserves, and perhaps
being equipped with nuclear weapons is only a tool to protect its most
in-demand property. Shall we trust Tehran?
Contemporary
history shows that the country has paid a huge price for its petroleum and the
idea of a powerful and independent Iran would be a wishful thinking as long as
Middle East oil continues to be the lifeblood of the world economy and the
focal point of American foreign policy.
The rise of
oil-thirsty China, followed by India, has become a new headache to the Middle
East, turning the region into a battleground of rivalry among great powers. It
is petroleum that is determining the importance of the Near East in the
calculations of all big powers. After all, the whole point of the US invasion
and occupation of Iraq was to establish a long-term military presence in the
country to ensure American domination of the Mideast and its prized oil
reserves as leverage over other economic competitors and potential strategic
challengers.
Since 1993, China
has been a net importer of oil and as its economy develops, demand for oil and
gas is certain to increase by large margins. In the long-term, there will be no
other substantial inflow of petroleum to the world�s second biggest oil
consumer, China, comparable to flows from the Middle East. When the supply of
energy from other parts of the globe rapidly diminish, the rivalry of the
greatest consumers of oil will aggressively intensify.
Based on some
estimates, almost every second barrel of crude oil that leaves the Persian
Strait of Hormuz in 2010 will head to the Strait of Malacca to be used by the
Asia-Pacific economies. China leads the region�s oil consumers, and in 2010 it
will have to import 4 million barrels of oil per day; by 2025 China will be
importing 9.4 million barrels.
Aside from Iran,
nearly all the oil producers in the Persian Gulf area have close cooperation
with the United States, and China�s growing thirst for oil has made it
imperative for Beijing, using its special relationship with Tehran, to get
closer to the Middle East. Because of its strategic, political and economic
importance, the Near East occupies a unique place in international politics,
and without having some stake in this region China would put its long-term
prospects as a rising global power in a very vulnerable position.
Iran is the second
largest oil producer globally, controlling about 9 percent of the world�s
petroleum. China�s booming economy has turned it into the world's second
greatest oil consumer and this has made Tehran a precious partner and a
necessary ally for Beijing.
Holding the second
rank among top exporters to Iran, China has become a major source of
manufactured goods, leading to the bankruptcy of certain domestic industries of
Iran. More importantly, growing Sino-Persian ties and their close partnership
for energy resources have progressed to a new stage. Iran is now China�s
second-largest source of imported oil after Saudi Arabia, and Tehran has
replaced Japan with China as the No 1 importer of Persian petroleum.
Despite the
emerging political and economic relationships between Tehran and Beijing,
leading some Western analysts to warn of the consequences of an
Islamic-Confucian alliance and an axis of non-Western civilizations, China has
so far paid the least price for its commitments to Iran. Beijing is not willing
to compromise its long-term interests for Tehran, and this makes Iranian
officials more cautious about putting all their eggs in Chinese baskets.
China can no longer
sign lucrative contracts with Iran and when it comes to crucial moments, such
as the nuclear issue, hide behind Russia, in order to keep the United States
happy. China's hedging strategy may serve its short-term interests, but in the
long-term it damages Tehran�s trust and makes China an unreliable partner.
Shirzad
Azad is an East-West Asian relations researcher at Aoyama Gakuin University,
Tokyo, Japan.