Five years ago this month, a devastating blackout rippled
through the northeastern United States. The blackout plunged more than 50
million people into darkness for nearly three days and left a gaping $10
billion hole in the nation�s economy.
The power outage, however, wasn�t an isolated incident.
Three years later, in July 2006, Queens, New York, lost
power for nine days, which resulted from the deterioration of decades old
electrical cables responsible for sending power to that area�s 100,000
residents.
The US power grid -- three interconnected grids made up of
3,500 utilities serving 283 million people -- still hangs together by a thread,
and its dilapidated state is perhaps one of the greatest threats to homeland
security, according to Bruce deGrazia, the president of Global Homeland
Security Advisors and a former assistant deputy undersecretary for the
Department of Defense, who spoke at an electricity industry conference in
Shepherdstown, Va.
The slightest glitch on the transmission superhighway could
upset the smooth distribution of electricity over thousands of miles of
transmission lines and darken states from Ohio to New York in a matter of
seconds, bringing hospitals and airports to a standstill.
�The U.S. electrical grid -- the system that carries
electricity from producers to consumers -- is in dire straits,� the Council on
Foreign Relations, a think tank, said in a report last year. �Electricity
generation and consumption have steadily risen, placing an increased burden on
a transmission system that was not designed to carry such a large load�
President George W. Bush made grand promises in the
aftermath of the August 2003 blackout, vowing to modernize the nation�s
dilapidated electricity grid, and to work with Congress on a comprehensive
energy bill that encouraged investment in the country�s energy infrastructure.
Yet, in the five years that have passed since the worst
blackout in US history blanketed the Northeast, nothing substantial has been
done to overhaul the power grid and Bush has failed to follow through on his
pledge.
Now, severe power shortages and rolling blackouts have
become a daily occurrence around the country as the antiquated power grid is
continuously stretched beyond its means -- mainly a result of electricity
deregulation -- whereby power is sent hundreds of miles across the grid to
consumers by out-of-state power companies instead of being sent directly to
consumers by their local utilities, which is what the grid was designed for.
Although tackling energy issues have taken center stage in
the presidential campaigns of Senators Barack Obama and John McCain, neither
candidate has outlined a comprehensive plan for dealing with the country�s
electricity woes. Instead, both campaigns have focused primarily on
skyrocketing gasoline prices and ways in which the country can tap additional
oil resources.
But the power problems, which are likely to persist, will
have a direct impact on the oil markets if grid reliability continues to be
ignored.
In an article in the May 7, 2008 issue of Energy Bulletin,
Gail E. Tverberg wrote �in the years ahead, we in the United States will have
more and more problems with our electric grid. This is likely to result in
electrical outages of greater and greater durations.�
�Quite a few people believe that if there is a decline in
oil production, we can make up much of the difference by increasing our use of electricity
-- more nuclear, wind, solar voltaic, geothermal or even coal. The problem with
this model is that it assumes that our electric grid will be working well
enough for this to happen. It seems to me that there is substantial doubt that
this will be the case.
�If frequent electrical outages become common, these
problems are likely to spill over into the oil and natural gas sectors. One
reason this may happen is because electricity is used to move oil and natural
gas through the pipelines. In addition, gas stations use electricity when
pumping gasoline, and homeowners often have natural gas water heaters and
furnaces with electric ignition. These too are likely to be disrupted by
electrical power outages,� Tverberg wrote.
In 2005, the American Society of Civil Engineers (ASCE) gave
the power grid a �D� rating in its report card on the state of domestic
infrastructure. The group issues �report cards� every four years.
�The U.S. power transmission system is in urgent need of
modernization,� a summary of ASCE�s report says. �Growth in electricity demand
and investment in new power plants has not been matched by investment in new
transmission facilities. Maintenance expenditures have decreased 1% per year
since 1992. Existing transmission facilities were not designed for the current
level of demand, resulting in an increased number of �bottlenecks,� which
increase costs to consumers and elevate the risk of blackouts.�
A study conducted earlier this year by the Carnegie Mellon
Electricity Industry Center concluded �Despite efforts to mitigate blackout
risk, the data available from the North American Electric Reliability Council
(NERC) for 1984-2006 indicate that the frequency of large blackouts in the
United States is not decreasing.�
According to George Gross, a University of Illinois at
Urbana-Champaign professor of electrical and computer engineering who
specializes in utility policy, a serious lack of investment in the power grid
continues to put reliability at risk and is the �Achilles heel� of the country�s
electric system.
�The August 2003 blackout was a wake-up call for the country
to upgrade its transmission grid system,� Gross said. �But the truth is that
very few major transmission projects have been constructed and, as a result,
transmission capacity has failed to keep pace with the expansion of power
demand.�
Power companies maintain grid reliability by following
voluntary guidelines designed by the power industry, just like the voluntary
emissions limits that the fossil-fuel industry says it upholds.
The US-Canadian task force that investigated the August 2003
blackout found numerous violations of the voluntary standards, and concluded
that utilities botched routine monitoring of transmission lines and failed to
trim trees along transmission passageways.
Since July, all seven of the country�s regional grid
operators that monitor power flow throughout the nation reported record
electricity consumption as temperatures increased. Blackouts struck many parts
of the country during the month of July, not because of a shortage of supply,
but because the dilapidated power grid could not handle the amount of
electricity that was sent back and forth across the transmission lines.
Demand for electricity is expected to increase by 45 percent
by 2025, according to the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC), a
power industry-funded organization in charge of overseeing the rules for
operating the nation�s power grid.
�In some cases, demand has reached levels that were not
expected for another three or four years,� said Jone-Lin Wang, most recently
the managing director of the Global Power Group at Cambridge Energy Research
Associates. �Very hot weather tends to cause more incidents of equipment
failure in the distribution systems. Although the bulk power system provided
adequate supply, extreme heat and surging demand put the distribution systems
through extreme stress, leading to some equipment failures and localized power
outages.�
But neither the Bush administration nor federal lawmakers
have developed a comprehensive plan to handle, at the very least, the annual
increase in demand. Blackouts will likely become more frequent in areas like
New York and New England, Wang said.
�We are concerned about New England because there is nothing
in the pipeline, but some small renewable projects and wind,� Wang said. �New
England is in trouble.�
The 2003 blackout led to calls for spending of up to $100
billion to reduce severe transmission bottlenecks and increase capacity so the
transmission lines can carry additional electricity from power plants to homes
and businesses.
But investment in the grid has lagged, and progress has been
slow.
�Transmission capacity is still below 5 percent,� Gross
said. �The need to strengthen the existing transmission infrastructure, to
expand it and to effectively harness advances in technology constitutes the
single most pressing challenge for the country�s electricity system.�
Jason
Leopold is the author of �News Junkie,� a memoir. Visit
www.newsjunkiebook.com
for a preview. His new website is The
Public Record.