With the credit bubble
still deflating, �bad assets� still �unwinding� and taxpayers put on the hook
for virtually every rescue scheme, the blame game has begun.
Scapegoats abound,
diverting public attention away from the anti-democratic fact that the current
global financial/money creation system -- now heavily weighted in �bad asset�
derivatives or debt on debt -- has grown so enormous that it has taken on a
veritable life of its own. Like it or not, this mathematically impossible and
easily corruptible system comes complete with its own set of continually
evolving de facto rules and �arrangements� which may soon become a legal part
of the global regulatory framework.
While too few have
chosen to seriously consider the consequences, there are those who have sounded
alarms. For example, in a working paper titled �Governing Global Finance,�
author William D. Coleman �explore[d] the relationships between derivatives
markets and the capacity of nation-states to govern� and �raise[d] the question
whether the very global character of these markets and of their key players
restricts the freedom of states to follow policy styles consistent with
domestic institutional arrangements.� Coleman further argued that �global
governance arrangements have supplanted to some extent the efforts undertaken
by nation-states.� (Governing Global Finance, William D. Coleman, Department of
Political Science, Institute on Globalization and the Human Condition. McMaster
University, Hamilton, Ontario, Canada.)
No surprise then that
while the public and their elected officials occupy themselves with assigning
blame to isolated scapegoats, leading policy and opinion-makers have begun to
openly call for the creation of a new �global authority� to fill the financial
regulatory vacuum. Issues of national sovereignty notwithstanding, it is almost
impossible to imagine how any such �authority� might neutralize, much less
overcome, the systemic risk posed by derivatives given the structural flaws
inherent within them. This is especially -- though far from exclusively -- true
for OTC derivatives.
With seemingly rare
insight and three years before Warren Buffet penned his famous warning about
derivatives in 2002, Martin Mayer, Nonresident Guest Scholar, Economic Studies,
at the Brookings Institute wrote that . . .�derivatives create a felt need for
their own employment. . . . Unfortunately, over the counter
derivatives�created, sold and serviced behind closed doors by consenting adults
who don�t tell anybody what they�re doing�are also a major source of the almost
unlimited leverage that brought the world financial system to the brink of
disaster last fall [of 1998, due to the threatened implosion of the relatively
small Long Term Capitol Management]. These instruments are creations of
mathematics, and within its premises mathematics yields certainty. . . . But . .
. The more certain you are, the more risks you ignore; the bigger you are, the
harder you will fall. . . . The one lesson history teaches in the financial
markets is that there will come a day unlike any other day. At this point the
participants would like to say all bets are off, but in fact the bets have been
placed and cannot be changed. The leverage that once multiplied income will now
devastate principal. � (The Dangers of Derivatives, Martin Mayer, 1999)
Bad as the
aforementioned pitfalls of irrational exuberance coupled with nearly unlimited
leveraging, high risk and built-in lack of transparency may be, there is much
more to the myriad of problems associated with derivatives in general, as
Professor Coleman and others clearly detail. For example, derivatives -- along
with other speculative tools -- are illiquid assets due to the fact that their
performance determines the timing and amount of payoffs.
So it was that in the
early 19th century, well before the modern age of OTC derivatives, small country
banks would help speculators build up localized asset bubbles through leveraged
loans on assets such as land or railroads. As with the modern derivatives trade
-- much of which is based on bundled loans or debt on debt -- when the
speculative fever forced prices to an unsustainable level, the bubble burst.
Asset illiquidity then forced a dramatic drop in prices and bad debt forced
banks out of business -- taking with them whatever assets ordinary citizens may
have placed in their trust and simultaneously creating a credit contraction.
Those lucky few still left with money in their hands then bought up depressed
assets for �a dime on a dollar� and another transfer of wealth took place.
Devastating as they
were to ordinary people and their communities, these were isolated bubbles with
relatively limited causative factors and effects. Today, the very size and
nature of the global derivatives bubble looms large as the newest and most
ever-present threat of the seize-up, and subsequent destruction, of the entire
global marketplace. The negative effects of the predictable deflating of the
credit bubble will be felt most acutely and for years to come by ordinary
citizens around the world, with the U.S. leading the way as more and more of
its now enticingly priced resources are sold to the highest bidder and more and
more of its citizens are forced to accept ever lower wages, fewer jobs,
increasing taxes and reduced expectations.
As the world�s largest
economy, the United States has long played a leading role in the global
financial system and cannot escape its share of blame in the current fiasco.
Its policies and actions have unquestionably played a key role in the most
recent explosion of both U.S. and global use of derivatives -- not only as
money-making tools, but also as an extremely privileged �off-balance sheet�
money creation tool.
In 1997, Thomas F.
Siems, who is a senior economist and policy adviser at the Federal Reserve Bank
of Dallas, penned a policy analysis, titled �10 Myths About Financial Derivatives.�
Here he posited that �the explosive use of financial derivative products in
recent years was brought about by three primary forces: more volatile markets,
deregulation, and new technologies.�
Ten years later, in
2007 testimony before Congress, economist and former investigator for the
Senate Banking Committee Robert Kuttner was able to draw a number of parallels
between what is happening today and the �unregulated� 1920s. Government
response to the 1920s fiasco led to the 1933 adoption of the Glass-Steagall
Act, the purpose of which was to regulate the banking industry. Echoing Siems
earlier assertions, Kuttner also discussed the long history of both de facto
and legalized deregulatory efforts which have occurred since Glass-Steagall --
and the manner in which new technologies and volatility have interplayed with
deregulation to �supercharge� old problems, while �federal breakwaters� have
served -- up until now -- to stave off collapse:
�Since
repeal of Glass Steagall in 1999, after more than a decade of de facto inroads,
super-banks have been able to re-enact the same kinds of structural conflicts
of interest that were endemic in the 1920s -- lending to speculators, packaging
and securitizing credits and then selling them off, wholesale or retail, and
extracting fees at every step along the way. And, much of this paper is even
more opaque to bank examiners than its counterparts were in the 1920s. Much of
it isn�t paper at all, and the whole process is supercharged by computers and
automated formulas. An independent source of instability is that while these
credit derivatives are said to increase liquidity and serve as shock absorbers,
in fact their bets are often in the same direction -- assuming perpetually
rising asset prices -- so in a credit crisis they can act as net de-stabilizers.
. . .
� . . . Beginning in the late 1970s, the beneficial effect of financial
regulations has either been deliberately weakened by public policy, or has been
overwhelmed by innovations not anticipated by the New Deal regulatory schema . .
.
�Of course, there are some important differences between the economy of the
1920s, and the one that began in the deregulatory era that dates to the late
1970s. The economy did not crash in 1987 with the stock market, or in 2000-01.
Among the reasons are the existence of federal breakwaters such as deposit
insurance, and the stabilizing influence of public spending, now nearly one
dollar in three counting federal, state, and local public outlay, which limits
collapses of private demand.� (Testimony of Robert Kuttner before the Committee
on Financial Services of the U.S. House of Representatives, October 2, 2007)
Following close on the
heels of the 1999 repeal of the Glass-Steagall Act (through the Gramm-Leach-Bliley
Act) mentioned by Mr. Kuttner, came the Commodity Futures Modernization Act.
Passed by a lame duck session of Congress in the fall of 2000, it was signed
into law by then President Bill Clinton. Known as the �Enron Loophole,� this act
was considered to be the most significant modification to the regulation of
derivatives trading to occur in 25 years.
While the loophole
specifically refers to exemption from meaningful oversight and regulation of
the electronic energy commodities market, the act itself may have had much
broader ramifications for the securities markets. At the very least, according
to independent analyst Mike Whitney, this bill �effectively kept much of the
market for derivatives and other exotic instruments off-limits to agencies that
regulate more conventional assets like stocks, bonds and futures contracts . .
.� (The Next Big Plan From The Bernanke
Politburo, Mike Whitney)
Defacto and actual
derivatives deregulation aside, there are a number of additional factors which
have contributed to the veritable explosion in global growth of the derivatives
trade seen over the last seven or eight years, with ominous implications for
both policy-making decisions and the economic climates of the world�s nation
states. Analysts say this explosive growth has essentially been fueled by the
United States through a number of key, converging factors that
include:
- The Fed�s cheap money policies which then led to the current
sub-prime crisis, global in its reach and effect.
- Ballooning public outlays for war-related expenditures which extend
down to the local level, as a response to the new, open-ended �war on
terror,� again global in its reach and effect.
-
Burgeoning
trade deficits and corresponding increase of foreign ownership of U.S. assets, occurring
as a result of �economic globalization� which in turn is enforced through a
growing plethora of �free� trade/investment agreements and rising militarism
around the world.
Preferential tax
treatment of derivatives is yet another factor contributing to their growth in
recent years in the U.S. and elsewhere. So favorable has this tax treatment
been that Alex Raskolnikov, a Columbia Law School expert on federal income
taxation and tax policy, told members of the House Ways and Means Committee�s
Subcommittee on Select Revenue Measures in March of this year that �financial
derivatives offer unprecedented opportunities to reduce or eliminate capital
income taxation.�
Hence, according to
analyst Paul B. Farrell, �derivatives have become the world�s biggest �black
market,� exceeding the illicit traffic in stuff like arms, drugs, alcohol,
gambling, cigarettes, stolen art and pirated movies. Why? Because like all
black markets, derivatives are a perfect way of getting rich while avoiding
taxes and government regulations.� (Derivatives New Ticking Time Bomb, Paul B.
Farrell)
The trouble is, says
Farrell, that Wall Street knows derivatives provide a lucrative business
despite the current slowdown and a volatile global marketplace. So it is that
�[t]he financial crisis exacerbated by credit derivatives is costing so much to
fix that speculators are now using those same instruments to bet on governments
. . .� (World According to TARP No Laughing Matter for US, Abigail Moses and
Shannon D. Harrington)
Just as troubling is
the fact that the domino effect of bank failure created by irrational exuberance
coupled with lack of transparency, illiquidity, heavy leveraging, and counter
party risk has quietly become an embedded feature of the newly emerging �global
credit system� as Warren Buffet, bond fund king Bill Gross and others well
knew. No longer are the old stand-by �federal breakwaters� of deposit insurance
and public spending for infrastructure or health care enough to stave off
collapse of national economies.
For example, a May
2002 white paper prepared for the IMF Legal Department and IMF Institute
Seminar on Current Developments in Monetary and Financial Law bore the
descriptive title �Emergency Liquidity Financing By Central Banks: System
Protection or Bank Bailout?.� Its purpose was to �consider ways in which
emergency liquidity funding (ELF) may be provided by central banks to
individual banks that are experiencing financial difficulties. ELF takes the
form of loans from, or guaranteed by, the central bank that are designed to
assist one or more commercial banks that are either undergoing a run on
deposits or as a result of concerns about safety and soundness or that are
experiencing a systemic financial crisis.�
The conclusion of this
white paper was: �The rules for providing ELF should be revisited, and the tilt
toward providing financing for every bank experiencing a run addressed. At the
same time, there should be sufficient flexibility in the law to allow a central
bank to provide ELF on an unsecured basis when needed in a banking crisis.
Central banks will do so regardless of the rules, therefore the law should
reflect the practical realities. In the case of a banking crisis, as provided
in the model law, consideration should be
given to having the state liable for ELF, since the health of an essential
part of the economy is at stake.� [present author�s emphasis]
Whether the rules have
been changed or not seems almost a moot point because making the �state� -- for
example the United States government and its taxpayers -- liable for �emergency
liquidity funding� provided by the Fed or other central banks to individual,
privately owned banks experiencing trouble is exactly what has been happening
since the �credit crisis� began in earnest in August 2007. Curiously, �[t]he
U.S. government�s [latest October 2008] $160 billion handout to banks from
Niagara Falls to Beverly Hills is going mostly to lenders that need it least,
putting weaker rivals at risk of being shut down or taken over . . � (U.S.
Treasury Program Shuns Banks That Need Cash Most, David Mildenberg and Linda
Shen)
What lies ahead for
American taxpayers was driven home by the recent $700 billion bank bailout and
at least partially revealed in an April 9, 2008, article in the Wall Street
Journal: �The Federal Reserve is considering contingency plans for expanding
its lending power in the event its recent steps to unfreeze credit markets fail
. . . Among the options: Having the Treasury borrow more money than it needs to
fund the government and leave the proceeds on deposit at the Fed . . . The
internal discussions are part of a continuing effort at the Fed, similar to
what is under way at foreign central banks, to determine its options if the
credit crunch becomes even more severe.� (Fed Weighs Its Options in Easing
Crunch, Greg Ip)
Perhaps it was these
�internal discussions� which led Pimco director Bill Gross, aka the Warren
Buffet of the bond world, to remark last year, �What we are witnessing is
essentially the breakdown of our modern-day banking system, a complex of
leveraged lending so hard to understand that Federal Reserve Chairman Ben
Bernanke required a face-to-face refresher course from hedge fund managers in
mid-August [2007].� In essence, says Gross, we are operating in large part under
a �shadow banking system� which uses derivatives as a new method of creating
money outside the hitherto standard liquidity rules of central banking
operations. (Derivatives New Ticking Time Bomb, Paul B. Farrell)
So it is that, in the
maniacal effort to maintain the current, mathematically impossible money
creation system �we are now in the process of designing a new global economy.�
How will this be done? By �redesigning the global credit system� in which �the
US appears to be a helpless giant, needing all the help it can get.� (Welcome
to the New World of Financial Innovation, Bruce Nussbaum)
The end result? A
massive and continually accelerating transfer of assets and wealth from the
real economy to the financial economy, compliments of governments and their
taxpayers.
We can of course sit
idly by, as we have long have done, while the global credit system is
redesigned for us and as more and more of us fall victim to the ravages of
unpayable interest and the greed and corruption it breeds. We can even wait, if
we choose, until the system completely collapses into cataclysmic chaos,
perhaps bringing with it horrors hitherto unimagined.
Or we can demand the
solution handed to us by our forefathers, that the Congress �coin� (as in
create) constitutional money and regulate the value thereof, with the states
being limited to using what the Congress �coins� (or creates) as money. But
maybe first we need to understand the true function of money, which is to
create abundance for all -- not just the fortunate few.
Next< Part 6: Den of Thieves, House of Cards
Geraldine Perry is co-author of The Two Faces
of Money and is also the creator and manager of the related website: thetwofacesofmoney.com which
includes recent reviews. This website also has an abundance of related material
and links, along with a free, down loadable slide presentation describing the
two forms of money creation and the constitutional solution, which is not the
gold-backed dollar as popularly believed. Geri holds a Master�s Degree in
Education and is also a Certified Natural Health Consultant. As a means of
imparting accurate information on health and nutrition to as broad an audience
as possible she developed the web site thehealthadvantage.com.