I�ve been watching the dollar die all my life. I sometimes
think I will outlast it.
When I was a young man, gold was $35 an
ounce. Today one ounce gold bullion coins, such as the Canadian Maple Leaf,
cost more than $1,000.
Our coinage was
silver. Our dimes, quarters, and half dollars had purchasing power. Even
the nickel could purchase a candy bar, ice cream cone or soft drink, and a
penny could purchase bubble gum or hard candy. If a kid could collect five
discarded soft drink bottles from a construction site, the 2 cents deposit on
the returnable bottles was enough for the Saturday afternoon movie. Gasoline
was 32 cents a gallon. A dollar�s worth was enough for a Saturday night date.
Our silver coinage was 90 percent silver. People sometimes
melted coins in order to make silver spoons, known as coin silver, which can
still be found in antique shops. Except for the reduced silver (40 percent)
Kennedy half-dollar, which continued until 1970, 1964 was the last year of
America�s silver coinage. The copper penny departed in 1982. As assistant
secretary of the Treasury, I opposed the demise of America�s last commodity
money, but I couldn�t prevent the copper penny�s death.
During World War II (1941-1945), nickel was diverted from
coinage to war, and the US mint issued a wartime silver (35 percent) nickel.
It is not easy to find items to purchase with today�s US
coins, but the silver coins of the same face value still have purchasing power.
The 10-cent piece of my youth contains $1.42 worth of silver at today�s silver
price. The quarter is worth $3.55, and the half dollar contains $7.10 of
silver. The silver dollar is worth 15.2 times its face value. These are just
the silver values of coins that might be worth far more depending on condition
and rarity. The silver in the wartime nickel is worth $1.10, which is 22 times
the coin�s face value. Even the copper penny is worth 2.5 cents.
When I was a young man enjoying travels in Europe, the
German mark or Swiss franc traded four to one US dollar. The euro, which is
today�s equivalent to the mark or franc, costs $1.55.
People who haven�t accumulated much age have little idea of
the corrosive power of �acceptable� inflation. Unlike gold and
silver, fiat money has no intrinsic value. When money is created faster than
goods and services it drives up prices, thus driving down the value of the
money. If freely traded currencies are excessively printed or if inflation,
budget deficits, and trade deficits drive currencies off their fixed exchange rates,
prices of imports rise as the foreign exchange value of the currency falls.
Today the US, heavily dependent on imports, is subject to
double-barrel inflation from both domestic money creation and decline in the
dollar�s foreign exchange value.
The US inflation rate is about twice as high as the
government�s inflation measures report. In order to hold down Social Security
payments, the government changed the way it measures inflation. In the old
measure, inflation measured the nominal cost of a defined standard of living.
If the price of steak rose, up went the inflation rate. Today if the price of
steak rises, the government assumes that people switch to hamburger. Inflation
doesn�t go up. Instead, the standard of living it measures goes down.
This is just one of the many ways that the government pulls
the wool over our eyes.
With the dollar value of the euro rising through the roof,
today a vacation in Europe is far more costly than in the past. Thanks to
China, so far Americans have been sheltered from the greatest effects of the
dollar�s declining value. Our greatest trade deficit is with China. The prices
of the goods from China have not risen, because China keeps its currency pegged
to the dollar. As the dollar goes down, China�s currency goes with it, thus
holding down price rises.
The resignation of Admiral William Fallon as US military
commander in the Middle East probably signals a Bush Regime attack on Iran.
Fallon said that there would be no US attack on Iran on his watch. As there was
no reason for Fallon to resign, it is not farfetched to conclude that Bush has
removed an obstacle to war with Iran.
The US is already over stretched both militarily and
economically. An attack on Iran is likely to be the straw that breaks the
camel�s back.
Paul
Craig Roberts [email him] was
Assistant Secretary of the Treasury during President Reagan�s first term. He
was Associate Editor of the Wall Street Journal. He has held numerous academic
appointments, including the William E. Simon Chair, Center for Strategic
and International Studies, Georgetown University, and Senior Research Fellow,
Hoover Institution, Stanford University. He was awarded the Legion of Honor by
French President Francois Mitterrand. He is the author of Supply-Side
Revolution : An Insider's Account of Policymaking in Washington; Alienation
and the Soviet Economy and Meltdown:
Inside the Soviet Economy, and is the co-author with Lawrence M. Stratton
of The
Tyranny of Good Intentions : How Prosecutors and Bureaucrats Are Trampling the
Constitution in the Name of Justice. Click here for Peter
Brimelow�s Forbes Magazine interview with Roberts about the recent epidemic of
prosecutorial misconduct.