If a person
lives long enough, he can watch everyone forget everything they learned.
Everyone
includes Federal Reserve chairmen, economists, Bank of America �strategists,� and even Bloomberg.com.
Federal
Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke thinks he can hold down US
long-term interest rates by purchasing mortgage bonds and US Treasuries. Sixty
years ago the Federal Reserve understood that this was an impossible feat. After
an acrimonious public dispute with the US Treasury, in 1951 the Federal Reserve forced an �Accord� on the government that eliminated the Fed�s
obligation to monetize Treasury debt in order to hold down long term interest
rates.
President Truman and Treasury Secretary John Snyder wanted to protect World War II bond
purchasers by preventing any rise in interest rates, which would mean a decline
in the price of the bonds.
The Fed
understood that monetizing the debt to hold down interest rates meant loss of
control over the money supply. The policy of suppressing interest rates could
only work until the financial markets anticipated rising inflation and bid down
the bond prices. If the Fed responded by buying more Treasuries, the money
supply and inflation would rise faster.
Since Fed
Chairman Bernanke announced his plan to purchase $1 trillion in mortgage and
Treasury bonds in order to help the housing market with low interest rates,
interest rates have risen. When will the Fed remember that printing money does
not lower long-term interest rates?
According
to Bloomberg (June 3), Bank of America strategists are recommending
that investors buy Fannie Mae bonds because the rise in interest rates means
the Fed will ramp up its purchases in order to prevent rising interest rates
from adversely impacting the struggling housing market. When will financial
gurus remember that printing money does not lower interest rates?
Treasury
Secretary Geithner is another economic incompetent. He told China that he stood
for a �strong
dollar,� but that China
should let its currency appreciate relative to the dollar, which, of course,
would mean a weaker dollar. He simultaneously told China that their investments
in US Treasury bonds were safe.
His Chinese
university audience, being economically literate, laughed at Geithner.
It
apparently did not dawn on the US Treasury secretary that if Chinese money is
rising in value relative to the US dollar, the value of Chinese
investments in dollar-denominated US Treasury bonds is falling.
Congressional
Democrats are proving themselves to be as stupid as the Republicans. According
to the Associated Press, the Democrats have reached agreement to appropriate
another $100 billion to continue the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan through the
end of the year.
What are
the Democrats thinking? The federal budget for this year is already 50 percent
in the red. Why add another $100 billion to the red ink, which has to be
monetized, thus causing inflation, higher interest rates, and a weaker dollar.
The red ink
that Washington is generating is a far greater threat to Americans than any
foreign �enemies.�
The hubris
is extraordinary. A bankrupt government that has to send its treasury secretary
begging to China thinks it can spend limitless amounts in a futile effort to
control the culture, mores, and political system of distant Afghanistan.
Paul
Craig Roberts [email
him] was Assistant Secretary of the Treasury during President
Reagan�s first term. He was Associate Editor of the Wall Street Journal. He has
held numerous academic appointments, including the William E. Simon Chair,
Center for Strategic and International Studies, Georgetown University,
and Senior Research Fellow, Hoover Institution, Stanford University. He was
awarded the Legion of Honor by French President Francois Mitterrand. He is the
author of Supply-Side
Revolution : An Insider�s Account of Policymaking in Washington; Alienation
and the Soviet Economy and Meltdown:
Inside the Soviet Economy, and is the co-author with Lawrence M.
Stratton of The
Tyranny of Good Intentions : How Prosecutors and Bureaucrats Are Trampling the
Constitution in the Name of Justice. Click here for
Peter Brimelow�s Forbes Magazine interview with Roberts about the recent
epidemic of prosecutorial misconduct.