Just before the release of the Iraqi Study Group (ISG) report, the
Washington political scene witnessed its own �Shock and Awe� act. The act was a
deliberate and purposeful attempt to silence critics of the Iraqi invasion,
prevent a genuine overhaul of the Middle East policy, hamper any move to
withdraw the military forces from Iraq, and emotionally and psychologically
drain Iraqi politicians who show the slightest concern for the future of their
country and the welfare of the Iraqis.
Primarily, in designing the �Shock and Awe� campaign, the
neoconservatives sought to reassert that the Iraqi venture is solely their own
and that they are not, by any means, a force in retreat. Their message is that
neither the outcome of the midterm elections nor the recommendation of the ISG
bipartisan team would force them to hand Iraq to Iraqis, order an exit of Iraq,
and bring peace and stability to that country.
In their campaign, the neoconservatives engaged in three major
activities, including the leak of National Security Advisor Stephen Hadley�s memo to the New York Times just
before the meeting of President Bush with Iraqi Prime Minster Nouri
al-Malaki. The neoconservatives thought that by depicting al-Malaki as a weak
leader and highlighting the need to forcefully suppress the popular Sadrist
Movement, al-Malaki would faithfully go along with their design for Iraq and
that the American public would think the administration has a workable plan.
Simultaneously, the neoconservatives initiated a smear campaign against
the ISG report and its main authors, James Baker III and Lee Hamilton, while
asserting that the Bush administration has its own vision to move forward. The Weekly Standard asked Bush to ignore the
ISG report and to �take into his own hands the fate of Iraq and make his own
decisions about what needs to be done.� Similarly, the Wall Street Journal called the report a �bipartisan strategic
muddle ginned up for domestic political purposes.�
Leading neoconservatives have fiercely tried to convince the public that
the report is an abandonment of responsibility. Richard Perle called it a
�misadventure� and �absurd.� Frederick Kagan wrote that acting on the report
recommendations �will almost certainly lead us to disaster.� Like the Weekly Standard, Michael Rubin insisted
�we must not leave Iraq� and that the level of our troops in that country must
increase.
Probably, the most devastating and threatening act to the existence of
Iraq and to the American interest in the Middle East is the neoconservatives�
reorganization of alliance among Iraqi groups which benefit from a weak and
unstable Iraq. Ambassador Zalmay Khalilzad, a
leading neoconservative, had a meeting with the leaders of these organizations.
The outcome of the meeting was a new alliance among the two clan-based Kurdish
organizations and the two sectarian-based religious groups; Iraqi Islamic Party
and Supreme Council of Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI).
The alliance among these organizations is
aimed at forcing Prime Minister Nouri al-Malaki to mount a military assault
against the popular Sadrist Movement, to reject any call for a timetable to
withdraw foreign troops, and to abandon his goal of building a functional
democratic Iraq free of terror and fear. Furthermore, the new alliance is
thought to facilitate the realization of the neoconservatives� ultimate goal of
partitioning Iraq and maintaining chaos in the region.
Ambassador Khalilzad, in coordination with Vice President Dick Cheney�s
office, carefully orchestrated a visit for Abdul Aziz
al-Hakim, the head of SCIRI, and Tareq al-Hashimi, the head of the Iraqi
Islamic Party, to meet President Bush in the White House. Like their allied Kurdish
warlords, both al-Hakim and al-Hashimi have an economic and political interest
in maintaining foreign forces. These politicians fear that the withdrawal of
foreign troops, in the near future, will ultimately lead to their political
demise and the collapse of their newly found economic fortunes.
It is not surprising that these politicians
broke rank with Prime Minister al-Maliki in denouncing the ISG recommendations.
In particular, the Kurdish warlord and President of Iraq, Jalal Talabani,
called the recommendations a threat to Iraqi sovereignty. Contrary to this
claim, the majority of Iraqis, however, consider the presence of foreign troops
and the occupation a menace to sovereignty and the welfare of the people.
While neoconservatives project the ISG
report to be a recipe for defeat and recommend instead an increase in the
number of troops in Iraq, international experts fault the report for not
calling for an immediate withdrawal of troops, a full restoration of Iraqi
sovereignty, and a clear statement that permanent military bases in Iraq are
not desirable. For example, former Senator George McGovern called for orderly
withdraw coupled with empowerment of the Iraqi government, apology for any harm
and destruction done to Iraq and compensation for Iraqis who lost their loved
ones.
The vigor and ferocity with which
neoconservatives have attacked the ISG report and its recommendations evidence
that they are not willing to give up on their plan for a complete
incapacitation of Iraqi political and social institutions. In 1982, Oded Yinon, a
political strategist, stated that Iraq constitutes an immediate threat and that
its dissolution has become a priority. He suggested that Iraq should be divided
�into provinces along ethnic/religious lines. . . . So, three (or more) states
will exist around the three major cities: Basra, Baghdad and Mosul, and Shi�ite
areas in the south will be separate from the Sunni and Kurdish north.�
David Wurmser, Vice President Cheney�s Middle East adviser and a
neoconservative thinker, was clear on how to expedite the collapse of Iraq. He
stated that, after removing Saddam from power, Iraq would be �ripped apart by
the politics of warlords, tribes, clans, sects, and key families. . . . The
issue here is whether the West and Israel can construct a strategy for limiting
and expediting the chaotic collapse that will be ensured in order to move on to
the task of creating a better circumstance.�
For the neoconservatives, the widespread
destruction and chaos in Iraq are not an unfortunate side effect of war, but an
indication that everything is going according to plan. In fact, for the
neoconservatives, creating perpetual disorder and chaos in Iraq amounts to
victory. Certainly, the bipartisan ISG report has its shortcomings. Nevertheless,
it seeks to add a dose of realism to American Middle East policy and to steer
it away from the current path of destruction and bloodshed. For this very
reason, the neoconservative will make sure that all efforts are made to
destabilize Iraq and fuel internal strife. They are convinced that creating a
chaotic Iraq is a fulfillment of a divine order.
Abbas J. Ali, Ph.D., is a professor and director
in the School of International Management, Indiana University of Pennsylvania.