Napoleon Bonaparte said, �If you want to understand the
policy of a country, look at the map.�
Geography is fate.
The United Arab Emirates is situated at the center of an
oil-dependent world. This tiny state forms the promontory that juts out into
the famed Strait of Hormuz through which 40 percent of the world�s oil passes
every day. Across the narrow straight sits Iran, the next victim on the list of
�axis of evil� nations. Any attack on Iran will require that military forces
quickly deploy to Dubai to forestall the closing of the strait and the
subsequent devastation that would cost to world oil supplies and financial
This is the critical point that is being intentionally
concealed by America�s diversionary media. This is the reason that President
Bush continues to force the Dubai port-plan even though 70 percent of the
American people and Congress resoundingly oppose it.
The importance of UAE as a staging area for future
hostilities cannot be overstated. No military strategy can hope to succeed
without first establishing a beachhead across the strait in Iran, so that the
danger of blowing up oil tankers and blocking passage is removed. This tells us
that plans for an attack may be on track for late March as originally
threatened by Israel.
For its part, Iran has been trying to work out an agreement
for enriching uranium with Russia, although Iranian President Mahmoud
Ahmadinejad still insists that the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT)
provides an �inalienable right� for the peaceful development of nuclear fuel.
Ahmadinejad is right, of course, but it makes little
difference. The United States has already brushed aside the Iran-Russia plan
and is pushing to have the Security Council censure Iran at its next meeting.
So too, talks have broken off between Iran and the EU-3 without producing any
positive results. The Euro-leaders are clearly abetting Washington�s gambit;
paving the way for another war.
Ahmadinejad has done nothing to help his cause by blurting
out absurd statements that have made him look foolish and irrational. (Israel
should be �wiped off the map�) Still, it�s doubtful that anyone could withstand
the withering �swift-boating� of the western media once they commence their
campaign of character-assassination, the likes of which we have seen many times
Ahmadinejad recently said, �We want peace, security, and
progress for all the countries of the region, especially our neighbors. History
has shown that Iran is a good neighbor. We are just working on nuclear fuel for
peaceful purposes.� His comments, of course, were not covered in the western
media since they conveyed the message of a responsible leader with benign motives,
rather than the ridiculous blather of a madman.
As far as we know, however, Ahmadinejad has been
straightforward in his claims. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA)
has consistently found that Iran has fully complied with the terms of the NPT and
that there �is no evidence of a nuclear weapons program.�
That hasn�t stopped Washington, though. The die was cast for
war with Iran nearly a decade ago in policy papers drawn up by far-right
political ideologues who now control all the levers of foreign policy in the
Bush White House.
The situation with Iran is bound to reach crisis-level this
week as the IAEA�s board off governors is expected to issue a statement
expressing its fears that Iran may be developing nuclear weapons.
Al Jazeera reported, �Diplomats in Washington and Vienna said the Security Council could
adopt a 'presidential declaration' calling on Tehran to heed IAEA calls to
suspend uranium enrichment and cooperate with inspections.�
A �presidential declaration?�
This is a clear admission that the IAEA has NOT found Iran
in violation of its treaty obligations, but is looking for some way to
accommodate the United States� insistence that Iran should be publicly scolded
by the international body.
Will this public humiliation be used as a pretext for war?
A Western diplomat told AFP the European countries had
�decided against a resolution� at this week�s board meeting, after hearing from
Russia and China that there was no support for one. (Al Jazeera)
Again, this suggests that there is no proof of foul play.
Nevertheless, European leaders and the United States want to
issue a �statement� that would call on Iran to voluntarily suspend all
enrichment activities and submit to more extensive investigations.� In other
words, Iran is being asked to voluntarily give up all of its rights under the
terms of the NPT.
But why would Iran willingly accept being treated like a
pariah when there is �no evidence� that it has done anything wrong?
The hypocrisy of this Bush-backed plan is breathtaking. Bush
just finished a trip to India and Pakistan, where he effectively declared
himself the final arbiter of who will get nuclear technology and fuel and who
won�t. His actions were a clear affront to the IAEA, the UN, the NPT, and the
United States Congress, which is supposed to determine such matters as
Bush has apparently elected himself the god of all-things
He has successfully destroyed the already feeble credibility
of the NPT by capriciously handing out nuclear technology to friends and
withholding it from enemies. He turned the notion of evenhandedness and
international law into a private fiefdom where science and technology are
distributed according to the whims of Washington mandarins.
The NPT is dead.
Will this final assault on international agreements clear
the path for war with Iran?
It is hard to say, but the Financial Times reported,
�Iranian activists involved in a classified research project for the marines
told the FT the Pentagon was examining the depth and nature of grievances
against the Islamic government (Iran) and appeared to be studying whether Iran
would be prone to violent fragmentation along the same kind of fault-lines that
are splitting Iraq.�
So, along with the $85 million Congress just voted to
provide for �pro-democracy� movements in Iran, Marine Intelligence is looking
for ways to exacerbate ethnic tensions to foment revolution to topple the
Tehran government. The plan for �regime change� in Iran is still being
aggressively pursued, even though neighboring Iraq is in utter chaos.
The UAE port deal is just more indication that an attack on
Iran is forthcoming. Its location is crucial to the success of any American
For Pentagon warlords Dubai has become the
strategic-epicenter of the global resource war. As peace-activist and author
Uri Avnery said, �Regimes come and go, rulers rise and fall, ideologies
flourish and wither, but geography stands forever. It�s geography that decides
the basic interest of every state.�
All eyes should be focused on Dubai and the tenuous future
of the Strait of Hormuz.
Whitney lives in Washington state. He can be reached at: firstname.lastname@example.org.