The enhanced status for the G20 and new national policy
audits announced in Pittsburgh are hardly the great progress being proclaimed
by government officials.
The elevation of the G20 to supersede the G8 in status
merely recognizes reality. The salient issues, other than bank regulatory
reform, require genuine action from China and other prominent developing
countries, which are members of the G20 but not members of the G8.
Announced audits of national economic policies by the G20
already are undertaken by the IMF and WTO. Generally, IMF and WTO findings are
ignored by national policymakers, and G20 audits will have little more impact
on member country fiscal, monetary and trade policies. In fact, little pressure
likely will be placed on China and the United States, for example, to
respectively modify their exchange rate regimes and budget deficits, because
G20 policy audits will done mostly at the IMF, where target countries enjoy a
great deal of influence on what is written about them. In the end, these audits
may tend to play down the consequences of these policies rather than motivate
substantive change.
Often in international forums, where no real progress can be
accomplished owing to lack of consensus, new processes are announced -- his is
a well-worn tactic at the WTO. To get the global economy on a more robust
growth path, China needs to substantially revalue the yuan against the dollar
and the U.S. needs to reign in federal budget deficits. Binding agreements to
accomplish those are not likely in Pittsburgh. The announcement of new forums
and studies is what diplomats do when they have little substantive progress to
announce.
Much more progress is likely and expected on bank regulatory
reform, because the major players on that issue are closer to consensus about
goals and means to accomplish genuine change.
Peter
Morici is a professor at the Smith School of
Business, University of Maryland School, and the former Chief
Economist at the U.S. International Trade Commission.