A careful reading of Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke�s
op-ed in Tuesday�s Wall Street Journal shows that Bernanke thinks the economy
is in a deflationary spiral that will last for some time.
Ben Bernanke: �The depth and breadth of the global recession
has required a highly accommodative monetary policy. Since the onset of the
financial crisis nearly two years ago, the Federal Reserve has reduced the
interest-rate target for overnight lending between banks (the federal-funds
rate) nearly to zero. We have also greatly expanded the size of the Fed�s
balance sheet through purchases of longer-term securities and through targeted
lending programs aimed at restarting the flow of credit. . . . My colleagues
and I believe that accommodative policies will likely be warranted for an
extended period.�
No talk of recovery here; just a continuation of the same
radical policies that were adopted after the collapse of Lehman Brothers. The
only sign of improvement has been in the stock market, where Bernanke�s
liquidity injections have jolted equities back to life. The S&P 500 is up
40 percent since March. Conditions in the broader economy have continued to
deteriorate as unemployment rises, the states find it harder to balance their
budgets, and the real estate bubble (commercial and residential) continues to
unwind. The Fed�s policies are Bernanke�s way of saying, �The states are not
the country. The banks are the country.�
Bernanke�s op-ed is a public relations ploy intended to
soften the effects of his visit to Capitol Hill yesterday. Congress wants to
know the Fed chief�s �exit strategy� for soaking up all the money he�s created
and avoiding inflation.
Bernanke again: �The exit strategy is closely tied to the
management of the Federal Reserve balance sheet. When the Fed makes loans or
acquires securities, the funds enter the banking system and ultimately appear
in the reserve accounts held at the Fed by banks and other depository
institutions. These reserve balances now total about $800 billion, much more
than normal. And given the current economic conditions, banks have generally
held their reserves as balances at the Fed.�
This is the core issue. The Fed has built up bank reserves
by accepting (mainly) mortgage-backed garbage (MBS) that is worth only pennies
on the dollar. Bernanke assumes that investors will eventually recognize their
mistake and begin to purchase these toxic assets at a price that won�t bankrupt
the banking system. It�s a complete hoax and everyone knows it. In essence,
Bernanke is saying that he is right and the market is wrong, which is why he
continues to conceal the fact that he provided full-value loans for collateral
which the banks will never be able to repay. The costs, of course, will
eventually be shifted onto the taxpayer.
Bernanke knows that the country is in a Depression and that
inflation won�t be a problem for years to come. It�s all politics. Bank lending
is way off and the shadow banking system -- which provided over 40 percent of
consumer credit via securitization -- is still on life-support. At the same
time, the savings rate has spiked to 6.9 percent -- a 15 year high -- as
consumers cut back on spending to service their debt-load, and try to make up
for the $14 trillion in lost household wealth since the crisis began. If the
banks aren�t lending and consumers aren�t spending, inflation is impossible.
Bernanke�s zero-percent interest rates and lending
facilities have been a total bust. The velocity of money (how fast money
changes hands) has stopped. Retail is down 9 percent year-over-year.
Imports/exports down 20 percent. Rail freight and shipping at historic lows.
Travel, manufacturing, hotels, restaurants are all in the tank. The economy is
flatlining. Only Goldman and JPMorgan have done well in this environment, and
that�s because the White House is a Goldman annex.
The only Bernanke policy that�s worked so far has been
flooding the market with money, which has sent equities into orbit while the
real economy continues to twist in the wind.
Here�s how former hedge fund manager Andy Kessler summed it
up last week in the Wall Street Journal: �By buying U.S. Treasuries and
mortgages to increase the monetary base by $1 trillion, Fed Chairman Ben
Bernanke didn�t put money directly into the stock market but he didn�t have to.
With nowhere else to go, except maybe commodities, inflows into the stock
market have been on a tear. Stock and bond funds saw net inflows of close to
$150 billion since January. The dollars he cranked out didn�t go into the hard
economy, but instead into tradable assets. In other words, Ben Bernanke has
been the market.� (Andy Kessler, �The Bernanke Market� Wall Street Journal)
Bernanke�s quantitative easing (QE) has pumped up bank
stocks enough so that Geithner won�t have to grovel to Congress for another
TARP bailout. The banks now have access to the capital markets and can
withstand the stormy downgrades ahead. Thus, the nagging problem of toxic assets
has been solved (temporarily) just as Bernanke had planned.
Bernanke will continue to monetize the debt (by purchasing
more US Treasuries and MBS) until securitization is restored and there are
signs of life in the failed wholesale credit-system. That�s the real objective;
to keep credit expansion in the hands of privately owned financial institutions
that are beyond the reach of government regulation. The Fed�s so-called mandate
of �full employment and price stability� is pure malarkey. The Fed�s job is to
provide an endless stream of cheap capital to Wall Street. By that standard,
Bernanke has performed his task admirably.
Mike
Whitney lives in Washington state. He can be reached at fergiewhitney@msn.com.