Yekaterinburg, famous tragically as the spot Lenin chose to
have the Tsar and his family executed in 1918, and ironically as the fiefdom of
Boris Yeltsin, who finished off the Russian revolution itself in 1991,
witnessed something no less remarkable last week when leaders of the so-called
BRIC nations (Brazil, Russia, India and China) held their first summit,
following the yearly meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO).
The BRIC countries comprise 15 percent of the world economy,
40 percent of global currency reserves and half the world�s population. Brazil,
India and China have also weathered the financial crisis better than the world
as a whole.
Holding the two meetings together meant that Indian Prime
Minister Manmohan Singh attended the SCO for the first time. The SCO, Russian
and China�s Eurasian security organization, has become a key counterweight to
US hegemony in the world, and Russia and China are eager to have India upgrade
its position of observer to member. This summit appeared to have coaxed India a
step closer, as the SCO security agenda has shifted its emphasis to the growing
security threat from Afghanistan, which satisfies the more pro-US India.
But the headline stealer was the BRIC summit. While the US
plays its tiresome geopolitical games on Russia�s eastern borders, Russian
President Dmitri Medvedev was busy charting a new economic and political
reality in the heart of Eurasia. �The artificially maintained unipolar system,�
he lectured, is based on �one big centre of consumption, financed by a growing
deficit and . . . one formerly strong reserve currency.� At the root of the
global financial crisis, he concluded, is that the US makes too little and
spends too much. Especially upsetting for Russia is its continued military largesse
to Georgia, the missile shield in Eastern Europe and its invasions of Iraq and
Afghanistan. �The summit must create the conditions for a fairer world order,�
he read out, as Presidents Hu Jintao of China, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva of
Brazil and the Indian prime minister looked on approvingly.
China backs Russia�s two big gripes with the US: �The
security of some states cannot be ensured at the expense of others, including
the expansion of military-political alliances or the creation of global or regional
missile defense systems,� the joint Chinese-Russian statement says. Chinese
leader Hu Jintao also joined Medvedev in denouncing US plans to militarise
outer space: �Russia and China advocate peaceful uses of outer space and oppose
the prospect of it being turned into a new area for deploying weapons . . . The
sides will actively facilitate practical work on a draft treaty on the
prevention of the deployment of weapons in outer space, and of the use of force
or threats to use force against space facilities.�
Iranian President Ahmedinejad, fresh from trouncing his
pro-Western rival in presidential elections, dotted the �i�s at the SCO
meeting, taking a leaf from Venezuela�s Hugo Chavez: �The international
capitalist order is retreating. It is absolutely obvious that the age of
empires has ended and its revival will not take place.�
But there was more than colourful rhetoric in all this,
despite the pooh-poohing of Western pundits, who deride the SCO and BRIC as a
collection of misfits and wannabes. The BRICs have put the US dollar on notice,
and are already finding alternatives as a means of clearing accounts. Medvedev
called for the IMF to include the Russian ruble and the Chinese yuan in the
basket of currencies used to value its financial products. But that is just for
starters. Chinese Central Bank governor Zhou Xiaochuan says the goal is now to
create a reserve currency �that is disconnected from individual nations.�
Even more ominous for the threadbare dollar, though
perfectly sensible in the computer age, is the revival of stone-age barter on a
big scale, which bypasses the need for any reserve currency at all. Brazil�s
biggest trading partner, once the US, is now (surprise) China, and they are
using barter deals to settle their accounts, bypassing the dollar altogether.
Two weeks ago, China reached an agreement with Malaysia to denominate trade
between the two countries in yuan.
As dollars are the world�s default reserve currency today,
the US government can churn them out at will to paper over its massive foreign
debt and budget deficit, effectively letting it steal other countries� assets
legally and forcing countries everywhere to finance its military spending.
China, Russia, Brazil and now India are well aware of this, have had enough,
and have the international heft to do something about it. For them, the US is
the ultimate rogue nation. How else to characterise a country that insists
other countries follow one set of laws -- on war, debt repayment and treatment
of prisoners -- but ignores them itself? The US is now the world�s largest
debtor yet has curiously avoided the pain of �structural adjustments� that the
IMF imposes on other debtor economies, refusing to cut its bloated military
budget or increase taxes meaningfully. �The world economy should not remain
entangled, so directly and unnecessarily, in the vicissitudes of a single great
world power,� said Roberto Mangabeira Unger, Brazil�s minister for strategic
affairs.
The US can never �repay� the $4 trillion debt it owes
foreign governments, their central banks and the wealth funds set up precisely
to dispose of the global dollar glut. �America has become a deadbeat -- and,
indeed, a militarily aggressive one,� notes Michael Hudson. The problem is how
to contain it. Rumblings are coming not only from fringe peaceniks. Yu
Yongding, a former Chinese central bank advisor now with China�s Academy of
Sciences, advises US Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner that the US should save by
cutting back on its military spending. �US tax revenue is not likely to
increase in the short term because of low economic growth, inflexible
expenditures and the cost of �fighting two wars.��
The BRICs are trying to organise their affairs so that they
are no longer the unwilling recipients of dollars. No matter what they think of
the US, they hasten to insist they don�t want to see the US dollar collapse,
since they hold most of their own reserves in dollars. But they are beginning
to withdraw the life-support system the US has been relying on since Nixon
completed the transition from a gold-based reserve currency to a purely paper
one in 1971.
Just to emphasise how serious the situation is, according to
the Financial Times, the top five financial institutions by market
capitalisation in 1999 were, in order, Citigroup (US), Bank of America (US),
HSBC (UK), Lloyds TSB (UK), Fannie Mae (US). The top five as of 2009 are
Industrial & Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank, Bank of
China, HSBC (UK), and JPMorgan Chase (US). From 0:3 to 3:1 for China, now
officially the world�s second largest economy after the US -- a rout.
Just as countries are beginning to rediscover age-old
barter, fixed, pegged and dual exchange rates are also being considered,
mechanisms once derided as passe. In the face of continued US overspending,
de-dollarisation will force countries to return to nationally determined fixed
exchange rates and dual exchange rates -- one exchange rate for commodity
trade, another for capital movements and investments.
The world is discarding its 60-year old framework, though
the historic meetings in Yekaterinburg elicited only a collective yawn from
most media. �Between the BRIC countries, there is really little in common,�
said Yevgeni Yasin, head of research at the Higher School of Economics in
Moscow. �Each of them has its own destiny, its own special character, and it
will be much more difficult for them to agree among themselves than separately
with Western countries.� China depends on manufactured exports to the US and
Europe. Russia sells oil, natural gas and other natural resources. Brazil
relies on agricultural exports, while India�s growth has been largely based on
its domestic market.
However, Jeng Fengin at the Chinese Institute of Modern-Day
International Relations is less blase: �The financial crisis has given a
much-needed boost to the fledgling partnership between Brazil, Russia, India
and China and helped our voice to be heard everywhere.� President of the
Brazil-Russia Chamber of Commerce, Industry and Tourism Gilberto Ramos warned
sceptics that the BRIC countries are all powers of a truly continental scope
and have very much in common, both geographically and macroeconomically.
In case Obama hasn�t noticed, Eurasia is coalescing, not
around littler Georgia and big brother Poland, with their pretensions as
forward bases for the mighty US empire, but around China, Russia and India. He
would do well to remember Yekaterinburg is not only famous for its Russian
past, but for Gary Powers, the US spy shot down in 1960, a fitting metaphor for
how Russia and China are taking aim at the US-dominated international financial
order.
Eric Walberg writes for Al-Ahram Weekly. You can reach him at ericwalberg.com.