The Clintons are patrolling Pennsylvania as if they�re
border collies herding all the stray sheep into the flock.
The same day that Hillary Clinton was campaigning door to
door in Scranton, Bill Clinton was in Lewisburg, Bloomsburg, and Jim Thorpe,
three small rural Pennsylvania communities in three different rural
northeastern counties. The day before, Chelsea Clinton was in Oregon; the day
after, she was at colleges in western Pennsylvania.
Sen. Clinton once dominated the race for the presidential
nomination. After her win in New Hampshire, her strategists convinced her to
concentrate on the �big vote� states, essentially ceding several of the Super
Tuesday states to Sen. Barack Obama, who had emerged as her primary rival. In
that Feb. 5 election, Obama edged Clinton in delegate votes, 847�834; more
important, he took 14 states to Clinton�s eight.
The perception was that Clinton and her campaign not only
were struggling but no longer had a chance to win the nomination. Although
Clinton later won Texas and Ohio, two states she needed, she trails Obama in
total delegate votes, 1,641�1,504, according to the Associated Press, with 8
million voters and 158 delegate votes at stake in Pennsylvania. (Pennsylvania
also has an additional 29 super delegates, officially known as �unpledged
delegates�).
Less than two months after Super Tuesday, Obama has
significantly narrowed the wide gap in voter perceptions that once gave Clinton
significant advantage over the first-term Illinois senator in experience,
health care, the economy, and the handling of the war in Iraq. Both Gallup and Washington
Post/ABC News polls reveal that nationally Obama is holding about a
10-point lead among Democrats. In Pennsylvania, Clinton�s double-digit lead
over Obama has now dwindled to single figures. An Post/ABC poll reveals
that 54 percent of Americans now have an unfavorable view of Clinton, up from
40 percent shortly after she won the New Hampshire primary only three months
earlier.
Sen. Clinton needs to win the Pennsylvania primary. Not just
by a little, but by a wide margin to re-establish her credibility and to
re-energize her supporters. Her biggest asset, although some would say it�s
also her biggest liability, is her husband.
When in Pennsylvania, President Clinton often gives as many
as five or six speeches a day in university auditoriums, middle school gyms,
YMCAs, and just about any place that will accommodate an enthusiastic crowd of
a few hundred. Two weeks ago, he even put a green scarf around his neck and
walked in the St., Patrick�s Day parade of the small mining community of
Girardville in Schuylkill County. From the crowds, he gets his sustenance, and
when he shakes your hand and looks you in the eye, it�s hard not to be
mesmerized by a man whose enthusiasm and joy resonates to every voter.
During his own presidential campaigns, Bill Clinton never
came to most of the rural communities whose voters he was now courting for his
wife. If Hillary Clinton weren�t fighting for her political life, he probably
wouldn�t be in those communities either since no local sponsor can afford his
$100,000�$200,000 speaking fee. But, here he is, one of the nation�s brightest
and most charismatic presidents, giving brilliant and perceptive campaign
speeches, smiling, and shaking hands in some of the most rural parts of rural
America, not unlike his home town of Hope, Ark., among people with some of the
same values. It is these communities that have become Sen. Clinton�s now
dwindling base -- white, middle-class, middle-aged and elderly women in rural
areas. Obama has taken huge leads in urban areas and the suburbs, among youth,
the college-educated, and blacks -- groups that gave Bill Clinton a strong
advantage in his campaigns of 2000 and 2004, that once gave his wife that same
advantage. To cut into Obama�s huge lead, Chelsea Clinton, with no pressure by
either of her parents, has visited more than 100 colleges to court first time
voters. Even conservative students, some of whom mistakenly believe John McCain
is too liberal, are stunned by Chelsea�s intelligence, eloquence, and
enthusiasm.
But, here and now, in communities where most of the
residents are conservative, many of whom once spit out the word �liberal,� the
people have become a part of Bill Clinton�s aura, participants in a campaign
event they never imagined. And they are identifying with Sen. Clinton, who is
drawing support from evangelical and Catholic older white women living in rural
America, who see her as a role model -- *an intelligent, successful, white
woman, now in her early 60s, who has a long history of concern and activism for
children, health care, and the disenfranchised.
Large numbers of Clinton supporters at least once voted for
George W. Bush. But, during the past two years they have become disenchanted
with the commander-in-chief�s policies that have led mothers to mourn their
children trapped by a half-trillion dollar quagmire euphemistically known as
Operation Iraqi Freedom, and by a president who has run up the largest deficit
in history and has driven the nation into a recession, one that has affected
the people of rural America far more than it has the CEOs in New York City.
The people of rural America may support Sen. Clinton, but
they won�t support Barack Obama if he becomes the party�s nominee. Some won�t
say it, but they�re concerned about a black president, one who has been tainted
in rural America by the lies that he�s a militant Muslim who doesn�t respect
the country. A Gallup poll, published March 26, reveals �only 59 percent of Democratic voters who support Clinton say they
would vote for Obama against [John] McCain, while 28 percent say they would
vote for the Republican McCain.� In contrast, 72 percent of Obama�s supporters
would vote for Clinton if she were the nominee, while 19 percent said if Obama
wasn�t the Democratic nominee, they would vote Republican. However, the
defectors will probably be fewer by the August convention and the November
election.
The polls occurred before Obama
told a closed-door audience in San Francisco that he thought rural and small
town Pennsylvania voters are bitter about the economy, about losing houses and
jobs, and so they �cling to guns or religion or antipathy to people who
aren�t like them.� Clinton launched a vigorous rebuttal, saying that Obama�s
comment was �elitist and divisive.� Although Obama quickly acknowledged that he
misspoke, and apologized, the effect of his words were not only to give Clinton
a campaign issue but to help solidify what has now become her base.
After Pennsylvania are nine primaries, with 566 delegate
votes and 126 super delegate votes. Clinton is holding strong leads in
Kentucky, West Virginia, Montana, and Puerto Rico, which have a combined 152
delegate votes. Obama is currently holding strong leads in North Carolina and
South Dakota, which have 130 votes. Depending upon the poll, Clinton or Obama
have slim leads in Indiana (72 votes), Oregon (52 votes), and Guam (4 votes).
About 300 of the 800 super delegates (officially �unpledged delegates�) have
not yet committed to either candidate. Needed for the nomination are 2,024
votes. A strong Pennsylvania win, with Clinton taking at least 60 percent of
the delegates, combined with a strong win in Indiana on May 6, could
re-establish her as the leading candidate.
She might still win the nomination. If she does, it will
have been because it took not only a family but, most assuredly, because it
also took a village.
Walter
Brasch, professor of journalism at Bloomsburg University and president of the
Pennsylvania Press Club, has covered 10 presidential elections. His latest book
is "Sinking
the Ship of State: The Presidency of George W. Bush."