Unable to achieve its goals in Lebanon, the Israeli
government has been left with egg on its face. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and
his neophyte minister of defense, Amir Peretz, are fighting for their political
lives. Israeli newspapers demand their resignations as well as that of the
bungling Chief of Staff Dan Halutz, who early in the conflict chose to bomb
women and children instead of risking boots on the ground.
Just about the only person in the world who is publicly
patting these losers on the back is the American president, George W. Bush --
kudos to him for managing to keep a straight face. What he�s saying behind
closed doors, though, isn�t hard to guess. Indeed, some Israelis have asked
whether their country�s usefulness to the White House might now be severely
eroded.
There is a split within the top army echelon over the way
the conflict was waged. Conscripts and reservists are complaining about poor
training, a lack of weapons and having to drink from the troughs of farm
animals or the canteens of fallen Hezbollah fighters.
They say nobody told them Hezbollah possessed an arsenal of
sophisticated weaponry. They say their commanders told them they would be
fighting �primitives� and they had no idea they would be facing a highly
disciplined force. They say they followed orders and drove their tanks through
valleys where like sitting ducks they were ambushed from the mountain fastness
by armor-penetrating missiles.
Ordinary Israelis who from the outset believed this war was
their noblest are now having doubts. The left is embarrassed at the high
civilian death toll wrought by their bombers; the right is angry their army
didn�t use every means at its disposal to wreak more death and destruction. The
hawks are outraged that their government signed up to the terms of UN
Resolution 1701, which cut short the ground war.
Some complain the war was conducted at the behest of the
Bush administration so as to tame Hezbollah as a prelude to a US pre-emptive
strike on Iran; others say it was done to seal the warrior status of Olmert and
Peretz, who unlike their predecessors aren�t career military men. A few
maintain it was engineered to test out new strategies and �Made in the USA�
weapons.
Worse than mere disappointment over their military�s
lackluster performance for the first time in decades, Israelis are aware of a
serious existential threat.
As long as their war machine was perceived as unbeatable the
Israeli state was cloaked in an aura of impenetrable power. But this is no
longer the case. It�s only logical that their enemies will have been emboldened
by Israel�s defeat, they say, in which case the Israeli state is no longer as
secure as it once was.
So deep are the scars of doubt and insecurity in Israel�s
collective psyche, that it is difficult to imagine the government will easily
reconcile itself to the status quo. Whereas observers can view the conflict�s
outcome dispassionately and feel some optimism that the cessation of
hostilities will endure, this isn�t the case for Israel�s residents for whom
winning means life over death.
Whereas Israelis, although hesitant to crawl back into their
bunkers, largely see the job as unfinished, Hezbollah is basking in adulation
from various spectrums of Lebanese society. This support has been reinforced
since its social wing quickly mobilized to hand out wads of cash to those whose
homes were damaged or destroyed without regard for the recipients� religious
beliefs.
Since according to the world and its wife Hezbollah has come
out on top, it�s hardly in its best interests to break the truce. It has much
to gain politically from keeping a low military profile and helping to rebuild
the southern suburbs of Beirut as well as the villages and towns of south
Lebanon that were razed to the ground.
As things stand, Hezbollah has political and military
leverage both within and without. In this case, any continuation of the fight
would not only constitute a gamble but would also try the tenacity of the
group�s following which has already lost so many lives and treasure.
The Israeli government, however, is desperate to save face
and to re-establish what Israel calls its deterrent value. This desperation was
seen two days before the cease-fire when thousands of troops were dispatched
across the border without a clear objective.
It was seen when Israeli commandos broke into a deserted
hospital and triumphantly returned home with one Hassan Dib Hezbollah, a
vegetable seller.
And it was in evidence last week when Israeli transport
planes offloaded jeeps and commandos camouflaged as Lebanese Army personnel
near the Hezbollah stronghold of Baalbek, thus violating the cease-fire and
incurring the ire of UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan.
It�s apparent that Israel has no intention of leaving well
alone. A senior IDF officer told the New York Times last weekend that Israel is
committed to hunting down and killing Sheikh Hassan Nasrallah, Hezbollah�s
leader.
Amir Peretz says Israel must prepare for the next round with
Lebanon. And we shouldn�t forget that Lebanon is still under siege with Israeli
warships ominously poised off its coastline and spy drones regularly
crisscrossing its skies.
The Lebanese government, on the other hand, is keen to play
by the rules. It has sent the Lebanese Army to the south where it is in the
process of setting up posts for the first time since 1975, and it welcomes a
beefed up UNIFIL.
On Sunday, the Lebanese defense minister warned all groups
not to risk violation the cease-fire or else be considered �traitors." He
also promised that the Lebanese Army would man the borders to prevent the
import of non-sanctioned weapons.
Superficially this statement appears to be a warning to
Hezbollah but, in reality, it was meant for the consumption of Israel and the
international community. Lebanon wants to give the message: �We are determined
to stick to the truce and, therefore, any infringement will be Israel�s."
In reality, Hezbollah has agreed to host the Lebanese Army.
Many of its number are Shiites from the south, whose family members are
Hezbollah fighters. In any event, the army isn�t equipped to take on Hezbollah
even if it were so disposed.
Israel is now in a cleft stick. Hezbollah isn�t giving them
an excuse to renew hostilities.
The Lebanese government is sticking to the letter of the
Security Council resolution, and the UN is monitoring Israel�s every move.
The question now is will Israel strike again before the
arrival of a projected 15,000 armed internationals and risk international
censure? Or will it decide to bite the bullet and give diplomacy a chance? The
next few weeks will tell.
Linda
S. Heard is a British specialist writer on Middle East affairs. She welcomes
feedback and can be contacted by email at heardonthegrapevines@yahoo.co.uk.