You might think
from all the political noise that something extraordinary happened when North
Korea conducted an underground nuclear explosion. But let's put the test, apparently
a small-yield, inefficient device, into some perspective.
The United States
has conducted 1,127 nuclear and thermonuclear tests, including 217 in the
atmosphere. The Soviet Union/ Russia conducted 969 tests, including 219 in the
atmosphere. France, 210, including 50 in the atmosphere. The United Kingdom,
45, with 21 in the atmosphere. China, 45, with 23 in the atmosphere. India and
Pakistan, 13, all underground. South Africa (and/or Israel) one atmospheric
test in 1979.
From a purely
statistical point of view, North Korea's test does seem a rather small event.
You must add the fact that my title, North Korea's Bomb, is aimed at
being pithy and is thereby unavoidably inaccurate. Having a nuclear device is
not the same thing as having a bomb or warhead, much less a compact and
efficient bomb or warhead. North Korea still has a long way to go.
But North Korea's
test is magnified in its effect by several circumstances. First, war in the
Korean peninsula has never formally ended, and American troops might well be
vulnerable to even a school bus with a nuclear device. Just that thought is
probably horrifying to many Americans who are not used to being challenged
abroad, but I'm sure North Korea has already been warned that that would
constitute national suicide.
Two, the test comes
when Bush has been exploring military means to end Iran's work with nuclear
upgrading technology. There is no proof that Iran intends to create nuclear
weapons, but, being realistic, I think we have to say it's likely. Iran faces
nuclear-armed countries, hostile to its interests, in several directions.
Security of its people is an important obligation of any state.
I doubt Bush
intends invading Iran -- invasion's extreme advocates, neocon storm troopers
like David Frum and Richard Perle having proved totally wrong about Iraq -- but
that doesn't exclude some form of air attack. Iran has deeply buried its
production sites, so the usual American bombers and cruise missiles will be
ineffective. There has been talk of using tactical nuclear warheads, but I
think there would be overwhelming world revulsion to this. The Pentagon may be
considering non-nuclear ICBMs, there having been talk of arming a portion of
the American fleet with non-nuclear warheads to exploit the accuracy and momentum
of their thousands-of-miles-an-hour strikes for deep penetration. But Russia's
missile forces are on hair-trigger alert against the launch of any American
ICBM, and the time for confirming error with shorter-range sea-launched
missiles is almost nonexistent.
Bombardment of Iran
may now be more questionable, something we may regard as a good outcome of the
North Korean test. How do you justify an attack to prevent the development of
nuclear weapons in one country when you have done nothing of the kind in
another that actually has them? This is even more true because Iran, while not
Arabic, is Islamic, and public relations for America in the Islamic world
already are terrible.
Third, what many
analysts fear most from North Korea is its selling weapons or technology to
terrorists. North Korea sells a good deal of its limited military technology to
others, although this does not make the country in any way special, the world's
largest arms trafficker by far being the United States. Many would argue that
American weapons have supported terror, those used in Beirut, for example,
ghastly flesh-mangling cluster bombs dropped on civilians. The answer to this
fear about North Korea brings us to the simple human matter of talking. The
U.S. must give up its arrogant, long-held attitude against talking and dealing
with North Korea, for here it is certainly working against its own vital
interests.
It is an
interesting sidelight on North Korea's test that at least portions of its
technology came from A. Q. Kahn's under-the-table operations in Pakistan,
America's great ally in its pointless war on terror. Perhaps Kim Jong Il should
volunteer troops for Iraq. This would undoubtedly change America's view of him
dramatically. Cooperation won a lot of benefits for the dictatorship in
Pakistan regarded by America as a rogue nuclear state just a few years ago.
All completely
rational people wish that nuclear weapons did not exist, but wishing is a
fool's game.
Efforts for general
nuclear disarmament are almost certainly doomed to failure at this stage of
human history. Why would any of the nuclear powers give up these weapons? They
magnify the influence and prestige of the nations that have them. And why
should other nations, facing both the immense power of the United States and
its often-bullying tactics, give up obtaining them? Moreover, technology in any
field improves and comes down in cost over time, and it will undoubtedly prove
so with making nuclear weapons.
The entire Western
world has conspired to remain silent on Israel's nuclear arms, even when Israel
assisted apartheid South Africa to build a nuclear weapon. If nuclear weapons
are foolish and useless, why does little Israel possess them? Why did South
Africa want them? Why did the Soviet Union, despite a great depression and
horrible impoverishment after the collapse of communism, keep its costly
nuclear arsenal?
If Western nations
can understand the dark fear that drives Israel, why can they not understand
the same thing for North Korea? The United States has refused for years to talk
and has threatened and punished North Korea in countless ways. When the U.S.,
under Clinton, did agree to peaceful incentives for North Korea to abandon its
nuclear work, it later failed utterly to keep its word.
Bush has treated
the North Koreans with the same dismissive contempt and threatening attitude he
has so many others. How on earth was this approach ever to achieve anything
other than what it now has produced?
We keep hearing
that North Korea is irrational and unstable, but I think these descriptions are
inaccurate. A regime that has lasted for more than half a century can be called
many things, but not unstable. Soviet-style regimes were very stable. It was
when such governments attempted reforms and loosened their absolute hold on
people's lives that they toppled, but there seems little likelihood of a
Gorbachev assuming power in North Korea.
North Korea has
done some bizarre things over the last 50 years, but I do not think a careful
speaker would describe the nation as irrational. North Korea has been isolated
and ignored by the United States. It is American policy that frequently has
been irrational, Bush's mob having been especially thick in their behavior
towards the country.
I may be
exaggerating when I write of bizarre North Korean acts, for since World War II,
what nation has done more bizarre, damaging things than the United States? Over
40 years of costly hostility and terror against Cuba? The insane, pointless war
in Vietnam? The insane, pointless invasion of Iraq?
Harsh sanctions
against North Korea, already advocated by the emotionally-numb Bush, are a
foolish response. North Korea's rulers would not suffer any more than did
Saddam Hussein under American-imposed sanctions against Iraq after Desert Storm.
Only ordinary people would be driven to misery and starvation, just as they
were in Iraq where tens of thousands of innocents died.
How much easier and more productive just to
talk.