Stocks are soaring, yet unemployment surges and the dollar
slumps. A contradiction made possible by Washington’s neglect of international
challenges to U.S. growth.
During the recent expansion, the trade deficit swelled to
more than $700 billion or 5 percent of GDP. Americans borrowed from abroad,
mostly to pay for oil and Chinese consumer goods. They posted as collateral
homes at values inflated by slap-dash appraisals and slick Wall Street
financial engineering.
Ultimately, homeowners defaulted on mortgages, home prices
tanked, banks failed, retail sales collapsed, and layoffs soared.
President Bush and the Federal Reserve rescued the biggest
banks with the TARP and nearly $2 trillion in easy loans. Sadly, the scions of
Wall Street were not so generous with their debtors, jacking up credit card
fees to squeeze new profits.
Enter President Obama, promising stimulus spending on
infrastructure to create private sector jobs. Instead, only $100 billion of the
$759 billion package is slated for brick and mortar, as the rest is shoring up
bloated government agencies and funding temporary tax cuts that mostly pay down
consumer debt.
Ten months into Obama’s era of new hope, new unemployment
claims still exceed 500 thousand each week, job applicants outnumber positions
6 to 1, and unemployment stands at 10.2 percent.
In Congress, Speaker Pelosi is ramming through “cost
cutting” health care reforms that will require $200 billion annually in
additional insurance premiums and taxes and push health care spending above 20
percent of GDP. In France and Germany, that figure is only 12 percent,
indicating a worsening competitive burden to U.S. jobs creation.
Private businesses, recognizing policies bent on economic
stagnation, continue slashing payrolls and inventories to accommodate poorer
consumers and anemic growth going forward.
The 3.5 percent GDP advance posted in the third quarter was
juiced by cash for clunkers and a slower inventory rundown -- in the arcane
world of GDP accounting, those boosted growth by 1.9 percentage points.
Lacking exports to pay for oil and Chinese televisions,
sustainable growth remains below the 3 percent necessary to pull down
unemployment.
Simply, annual productivity and labor force growth are 2 and
1 percent, respectively. GDP growth must exceed the sum of those numbers or
businesses can’t meet new demand while unemployment hangs above 10 percent.
China will grow 10 percent next year, and Asia will boom.
Big U.S. companies like Caterpillar and GE that manufacture and sell there will
prosper.
Prospects for stronger Asian growth and even a modest U.S.
recovery are enough to power profits for American multinationals. Add the
expected bonanza to drug and medical device makers from health care reform, and
stock prices are up even as the unemployed languish in despair.
Meanwhile, Washington is driving the dollar down against
foreign currencies by hawking $2 trillion in new Treasuries to pay for bank
bailouts, reckless stimulus and other fiscal foolishness.
Foreign central banks and investors don’t hold greenbacks --
they prefer Treasury securities which pay interest. All those Obama Bonds
increase the supply of the dollar-denominated securities in international
markets, while inflation worries drive investors away from those securities
into gold, euros and yen.
Increase supply, sabotage demand, and the dollar tanks,
whether measured in gold, euros, yen, or yak eggs on the plains of Tibet. Add
talk of a global currency from disgusted foreign central bankers, and worries
abound about a final dollar panic.
With consumers unable to borrow and spend like the good old
days, U.S. exports must surge and imports abate to create enough new customers
for what Americans produce. Only that will power U.S. growth robust enough to
generate the taxes necessary to stem Washington’s borrowing, printing press
promiscuity, and the dollar weakness.
Unfortunately, a cheap greenback against the euro and yen is
not likely to boost exports enough, because Europe and Japan have only middling
growth prospects too.
U.S. imports will rise, because oil is priced in dollars and
China continues to fix the yuan against the dollar at an arbitrarily low level
to subsidize its exports. Those rising imports could sap demand for U.S. goods
and services enough to instigate the dreaded double dip recession in late 2010.
Blind to Chinese mercantilism, President Obama has no
credible plan to boost exports or reduce imports. Democrats’ obsession with
health care, global warming and social issues only raise business costs and
exacerbate the resulting malaise.
U.S. stocks may ride the Chinese miracle, but American
workers will suffer lost hope, and the dollar may become cheaper than wallpaper
in foreign markets before the follies end.
Peter
Morici is a Professor at the Smith School of Business, University of Maryland,
and former Chief Economist at the United States International Trade Commission.