Fed chief Ben Bernanke is in a bit of a bind. He’s being
asked to restore a system for credit expansion which collapsed more than two
years ago and has shown no sign of life ever since.
During the boom years, securitization accounted for more
than 40 percent of the credit flowing into the economy. No more. When two Bear
Stearns hedge funds defaulted in July 2007, the system crashed as investors of
all stripes backed away from complex, illiquid assets. The Fed’s TALF lending
facility -- which provides up to 94 percent government funding for investors
who are willing to purchase bundled debt for credit cards, mortgages, auto
loans and student loans -- was intended to breathe new life into
securitization, but has fallen woefully short of its original objectives. It
pretty much fizzled on the launching pad. Even the shrewdest hedge fund sharpie
couldn’t figure out how to make money on (what amounts to) fetid assets.
Ironically, the Fed’s original plan for the TALF would have
involved a $20 billion loan from the Treasury levered 10 to 1 to provide up to
$200 billion in funding support for applicants. In other words, the Fed was
planning to borrow money, to lend to people (investment banks and hedge funds)
who were borrowing money to lend to people who were borrowing money. (consumer
credit cards, mortgages, car loans etc) Read that sentence again to fully
appreciate how utterly fouled up the credit system really is. The Fed and
Treasury are like private equity hucksters overseeing an inherently corrupt and
immoral system. Michael Moore is right.
Fortunately, Bernanke’s plan to rebuild securitization has
no chance of succeeding. The system can’t be restored because it required
conditions which no longer exist: a strong currency, mega-surplus capital, and
credulous investors who were unaware of the implicit risks of illiquid assets.
Today, the dollar is wobbly, money is tight, and the pool of dupes ready to be
fleeced has been greatly reduced. The notion that Wall Street can better
perform the tasks traditionally left to highly-regulated banks, has also been
called into question . . . and rightly so. Unfortunately, the largest banks in
the country -- which have transformed themselves into investment casinos -- don’t
have the ability to return to the more conservative model of long-term lending
to qualified applicants. They are stuck in a post-Glass Steagall mold,
incapable of turning a profit on conventional loans to consumers and
businesses. There’s a glaring need for some opportunistic entrepreneur (Warren
Buffet?) to step into the breach and create a bank where depositors feel
comfortable leaving their life savings knowing their bank is at least a
notch-or-two above a Monte Carlo roulette table.
Bernanke will not give up the hope of resuscitating
securitization because the financial mandarins who employ the Fed chief see it
as an exportable model which will give them greater control over the global
financial system. This is not taken lightly by the powers behind the curtain.
The beauty of securitization is its utter simplicity: it simply transfers the
authority to generate credit (money) from highly regulated banks to rogue
players in the shadow banking system. By borrowing short to invest in dodgy
long-term assets, fund managers and PE smarties are able to expand credit to
unimaginable levels, skimming off fat bonuses and salaries for themselves while
the monster bubble limps slowly towards earth.
This is the system that Bernanke is trying to electroshock
back into consciousness, albeit with negligible results. The Fed is essentially
pumping blood into a corpse hoping for some fleeting sign of life. But dead is
dead. Capitalism requires capital. This is the disturbing truth behind
securitization, which was not developed to allocate resources to productive
activity more efficiently but to allow credit expansion on smaller and smaller
chunks of capital, further enriching a handful of well-connected speculators.
This is the sole function of off-balance sheets operations and unregulated
derivatives to conceal the abysmal lack of capital that supports the debt. When
trillions of dollars in complex debt-instruments, derivatives contracts, and
loans to unqualified applicants are stacked atop a tiny scrap of capital,
disaster is inevitable.
Bernanke is now busy sifting through the rubble trying to
reassemble Wall Street’s Golden Goose for one-last wild credit fling, but with
no luck. So far, he’s come up snake-eyes, which is probably best for everyone.
Mike
Whitney lives in Washington state. He can be reached at fergiewhitney@msn.com.