The future of Israel as a Jewish state is in jeopardy, according to a leaked CIA study destined for certain eyes only. According to author and lawyer Franklin Lamb, it predicts an inevitable shift away from a two-state solution to the pursuance of one state. Its estimations also include the emigration to the US of 2 million Israelis within the coming 15 years, along with another 1.5 million to Europe and Russia.

This may sound radical but it appears that the outgoing Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert agrees. “If the day comes when the two-state solution collapses and we face a South African-style struggle for equal voting rights, then, as soon as that happens, the State of Israel is finished,” he said in January.

Olmert’s concerns revolve around demographics. Israeli immigration figures are down because Russians and eastern Europeans who formerly made up a large proportion of the immigration pool now prefer to stay put. At the same time, Israeli Jewish emigration is significantly up.

Moreover, the 1948 Arabs in Israel and Palestinians traditionally have large families, translating to Jews in Israel and the occupied Palestinian territories being greatly outnumbered in the future. In 1967, Israel was 86 percent Jewish. Today, Jews comprise fewer than 75 percent of Israel’s population.

It looks as though Olmert’s worst fear is about to happen. The incoming right-wing government, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, hasn’t the slightest interest in a Palestinian state. Instead, Netanyahu wants to maintain the status quo in Gaza while upping living standards for Palestinian residents of the West Bank. It’s a recipe for disaster.

In truth, Olmert’s government was little better. On its watch, no progress was made apart from behind closed doors talks with the president of the Palestinian National Authority, Mahmoud Abbas, and the attendance of Israeli officials at the Annapolis peace conference sham. Furthermore, Olmert all but ignored an olive branch by the Arab League which proffered a peace plan based on Israel’s return to its 1967 borders.

Arab League Secretary-General Amr Mousa seems relieved that the pretence is over. Perhaps a Netanyahu government “will say ‘no’ to our face as opposed to the sophisticated way of refusal of the current government, which calls itself left of centre,” he recently said.

In other words, Olmert and his team have spent years playing a charade designed to give Israel a ‘good guy’ appearance, a country seeking peace without an appropriate partner. And to be fair, Israel hasn’t had a partner mainly because the US squeezed the Palestinians into holding free and fair elections before labelling their choice ‘terrorist.’

Washington has also done its best to divide Palestinians by funding and arming Fatah while discouraging Abbas from entering into a unity government with Hamas leader Esmail Haniya.

In brief, we’re left with an Israeli government which is against two states; Palestinians set one against the other; and a Palestinian president whose period in office has expired and who does not enjoy the broad support of his people. Sadly, there’s little to inspire even a cockeyed optimist.

If there is veracity in the CIA study, which maintains Israel’s survival is in doubt beyond the next 20 years, then all the Palestinians have to do is continue exercising their famous capacity for patience. They are used to enduring; they are used to struggle and they are masters in maintaining their core belief that one day they will prevail. Jewish Israelis who believe they already have may be in for a rude awakening.

Firstly, Israel’s war with Lebanon did not achieve its aim of weakening Hezbollah and despite its 22-day bombardment of Gaza, Hamas is still going strong. Both failures have smashed the myth of Israeli invincibility.

But even more of a danger to Israel’s survival is the erosion of its victim status on which Israel’s international approbation is largely founded. As Holocaust survivors die, younger generations around the world have little knowledge of Jewish suffering during the Second World War. It’s likely that in 20 years time “never again” will have little meaning outside Israel. Once this happens, Israel will be judged on its merits like any other country.

Shifts in perception are already beginning. For instance, Britain and other European nations are calling for an end to the siege on Gaza while international donor countries have pledged over $4.5 billion (Dh16.52 billion) towards its reconstruction. At the same time, the International Criminal Court is mulling over the legalities of allowing Palestinian membership. All over the world, there have recently been anti-Israeli demonstrations, calls to boycott Israeli products as well as petitions seeking to ban intellectual and cultural exchanges.

If the US becomes infected with similar anti-Israel sentiment, which could happen if Americans realise just how much of their tax dollars are being sent Israel’s way and how many wars they are waging partly on Israel’s behalf, Israel’s days are numbered. In the long run, Israelis need a Palestinian state just as much as the Palestinians themselves, if they only knew it.