“We’re not going to win this war,” a British commander in Afghanistan, Brig. Mark Carleton-Smith, recently disclosed to the Sunday Times. He suggests the most that can be hoped for is to dampen the insurgency, which he believes will still be active once the foreign armies have left unless efforts are made to negotiate with the Taleban, who, until now, have refused to sit down with “invaders.”

Australia’s Defense Minister Joel Fitzgibbon agrees that a decisive military victory may not be attainable, while NATO’s secretary-general wants to find a diplomatic solution to end the conflict.

These statements came on the heels of an article in the French weekly Le Canard Enchaîné quoting the British Ambassador to Afghanistan Sir Sherard Cowper-Coles as warning, “The American strategy is destined to fail.” According to the article, the ambassador believes that the coalition forces are part of the problem rather than the solution. Now that two of the most senior people on the spot have spoken up, the British people should be asking their government “What are we doing there?” and demanding a swift exit if they don’t get a satisfactory response.

The news from US officials is almost as bleak. The American commander in charge of Afghanistan operations Gen. David McKiernan warned on the weekend of a flood of “well trained” militants pouring into Afghanistan eager to stand with insurgents against NATO. The fight is a lot tougher than anyone expected, he added.

Yet, he’s doubtful that an Iraq-type troop “surge” would be effective, contradicting the views of the gung-ho McCain-Palin camp. “What I don’t think is needed — the word that I don’t use in Afghanistan is the word ‘surge,’” he told The Washington Independent. “There needs to be a sustained commitment of a variety of military and nonmilitary resources . . .”

Afghan President Hamid Karzai seems to have got the message. He has reportedly asked Saudi Arabia to help facilitate a peace deal between his government and moderate Taleban elements. It’s a good idea but why did he and his US backers wait such a long time? Surely, they must have known early on that they couldn’t kill all their enemies and the day would come when they would have to reach a compromise. In fairness to Karzai, shortly after the taking of Kabul in 2001 he was keen to give amnesty to Taleban fighters willing to lay down their arms and allow Taleban leader Mullah Omar to live in dignity.

But this idea was quickly nipped in the bud when the then US Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld warned him that if he did so, America’s cooperation (read money) would dry up. “To the extent that our goals are frustrated and opposed, we would prefer to work with other people,” Rumsfeld announced, leaving Karzai with no choice but to back down.

Fast forward to 2008 and the US-led NATO coalition has a real problem. Even if its politicians and generals know deep in their hearts that helicopters and bombs won’t produce results, they are reluctant to walk away admitting failure. The US VP hopeful Sarah Palin is already shrieking “White flag” at the very intimation of a pullout.

Let’s face it! There are very few successes they can claim with any credibility. Osama bin Laden has never been found “dead or alive,” Mullah Omar has managed to evade them and the opium poppies that partly fund the insurgency are blooming as never before. UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon recently admitted that security in Afghanistan had deteriorated over the past six months with 30 aid workers having been murdered so far this year.

Even the so-called “democracy” they gifted to Afghanistan is flimsy, to say the least. A recently leaked memo written by Ambassador Carleton-Smith reveals that the Karzai government has failed to garner trust and he, therefore, advises that the country should be governed by “an acceptable dictator” five to 10 years after British troops say their farewells. Isn’t this outrageous?

For years, the US and British governments have been lauding their sprinkling of democratic stardust around the region as though democracy is a one-size-fits-all panacea. But, of course, this has been nothing but a cynical ploy to win over their own publics to support endless wars. As the ambassador’s memo makes clear, all they really want are pliable puppet rulers amenable to doing their bidding. Even a dictator will do as long as he’s theirs.

With a prolonged recession looming that might entail massive job layoffs, I predict that America’s Afghan adventure will soon be viewed domestically as a luxury the US can ill afford. Nobody doubts that tears shed for fallen soldiers aren’t genuine, but Americans won’t want to know about Afghanistan when they are hit where it really hurts . . . in their pockets.