Israelis are
concerned about Iran's nuclear programme, which they believe is an existential
threat. Supporting this argument they misquote the Iranian president as saying
he wants to wipe Israel off the map.
They are right to be
worried but their concerns are misplaced. Israel's continued existence as a
Jewish state may be in the balance but this has nothing to do with Iran.
Let's be practical.
Even if Iran did develop a nuclear weapon -- and there is no evidence it
intends doing so -- its leaders would have to be suicidal to send it Israel's
way. Israelis should quit hyping a non-existent Iranian threat and concentrate,
instead, on real hazards that menace their future. What are they?
First of all, as
reported by Bar Ilan University, non-Jews in Israel constitute 28 per cent of
the population and this percentage is increasing year-on-year with the
admittance of foreign labour and non-Jewish immigrants from former Soviet Union
countries who immigrate on the strength of a Jewish ancestor.
Members of the latter
group are usually economic migrants who feel little loyalty to their new home
and are strangers to the concept of Zionism. In September, eight young Israelis
were arrested for engaging in neo-Nazi activities triggering calls for an
overhaul of right-of-return laws.
Arnon Sofer, a
professor at the University of Haifa, made this prediction in 2002: By the year
2020 Jews will become a minority in Israel due to the influx of non-Jewish
immigrants and the high Arab Israeli birthrate.
At the same time,
Jewish immigration is down with Russian Jewish emigrants preferring to move to
Germany rather than to Israel, while Jews in Eastern Europe are generally
staying put so as to enjoy the fruits of vibrant, open economies.
Israel is also
experiencing a Jewish brain drain, according to Barr Hayoun writing in
Ha'aretz, who says 700,000 Israelis are living abroad, while every year some
18,000 emigrate.
Out of these, between
2,000 and 5,000 eventually return but only half "liked the outcome of
their return" and a "whopping 73 percent said they had been satisfied
with life abroad."
This shift in
demographics has been referred to as "a time bomb" but there is another,
just as important, factor to consider.
Israel's puissance
and security within the region is arguably dependent on support from Washington
in terms of billions of dollars in aid, loans and weapons. Instrumental in
securing such support is the powerful pro-Israel lobby, which can make or break
an American politician's career. But what if American Jewry decides the lobby
no longer serves its interests?
American Jews are
assimilating as never before with two out of three refraining from identifying
themselves in terms of being Jewish and more than one-third living in
non-Jewish households, according to the Council of Jewish Federations.
Shrinking
More than half of all
American Jews are marrying outside the faith and the American Jewish birthrate
is lower than that of non-Jews, which means the Jewish population in the US is
shrinking and ageing. Moreover, a recent headline in Ha'aretz reads,
"Study: Young US Jews more comfortable when surrounded by non-Jews."
You get the picture.
It's clear that if this trend continues over the next decades, American Jewish
support for the lobby and for the Jewish state could dwindle to the extent
organisations such as AIPAC could eventually be shunned as representatives of a
foreign nation attempting to influence US foreign policy.
Based on the above
projections, if Jews within Israel become a minority and the numbers of Jews in
the US supporting a Jewish state -- both financially and ideologically --
decline, then Israel will be increasingly vulnerable.
There is also the
possibility that the US public could one day decide it no longer wants its
country to involve itself in Middle East wars waged primarily for the benefit
of Israel's regional hegemony.
And Israelis
themselves are wakening up to the fact that support from US Evangelical
Christians is not altruistic but rather based on self-interest as the
right-wing pundit Ann Coulter illuminated when she declared on TV that Jews
need to be perfected by becoming Christians.
Nothing is forever
and the tide could easily turn against Israel. If that were to happen in the
US, the rest of the world would likely follow suit.
The only way that
Israel can secure its future is to seriously forge peace with the entire Arab
world entailing its withdrawal behind 1967 lines so that a viable and
contiguous Palestinian state can be formed with its capital Jerusalem.
Fixed borders and
regional recognition will ensure long term peace and prosperity, and Israel's
legitimate place in the world not as a feared pariah but as a respected nation
that abides by international laws and treaties.
Peace may be crucial
to the well-being of the Palestinians but, if they only knew it, it's just as
vital for Israelis, perhaps even more so.
Linda
S. Heard is a British specialist writer on Middle East affairs. She welcomes
feedback and can be contacted by email at heardonthegrapevines@yahoo.co.uk.