Dump it or stay with it is a question being mulled over by
private investors, financial institutions, major corporations and central banks
around the world in relation to the weakened US greenback.
On Sunday, it was the turn of the Organisation of Petroleum
Exporting Countries (OPEC).
Speaking at a press conference following the recent OPEC
meet in Riyadh, Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad said all member states are
concerned about the falling US currency and have asked their finance ministers
to study the feasibility of selling oil in another currency.
However, OPEC's official communique omitted to mention any
such intention, probably due to Saudi Arabia's determination to not rock an
already capsizing boat. It's interesting to note, though, that for the first
time Saudi Arabia declined to cut interest rates in concert with the last
Federal Reserve decision.
It is certainly a dilemma for oil-producing nations.
Sticking to a currency in decline doesn't appear to make financial sense on the
surface, but were they to change, say, to euros there is a good chance the
dollar would collapse causing chaos in world markets and a possible global
recession.
The GCC must make similar decisions over the dollar peg with
the exception of Kuwait, which unilaterally made the switch earlier this year
and has since seen its currency revalued upwards by 4.5 per cent.
The peg has served GCC nations well for decades but is now
triggering inflation due to the high cost of imports. It is also distressing
the workforce, whose income in real terms is diminished. This is especially
worrying for expatriates with financial commitments in their home countries,
such as mortgages or a need to support dependants.
Last week, the governor of the UAE Central Bank, Sultan Bin
Nasser Al Suwaidi, hinted that the Emirates may instead link the dirham to a
basket of currencies that would also include the dollar. "It's not my
prediction but everybody is expecting that the US dollar will go down further.
It will trigger a review," he said during a visit to South Korea.
Previously, Al Suwaidi has indicated the UAE would not move
without a consensus from its fellow GCC partners, but there is a general
impression that Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Qatar and Oman are reluctant to alter
the status quo. Eventually the UAE will have to decide whether to bite the
bullet or go it alone.
Although the discussions conducted by Gulf countries over
whether to discard the petrodollar and delink GCC currencies from the greenback
are pragmatically focused on economics, this isn't the case for all OPEC
members.
Iran and Venezuela, for instance, view the dollar as a
symbol of American hegemony and are keen to do away with it for primarily
political reasons.
Vulnerability
The fact that such a debate is underway illustrates
America's vulnerability and at the same time the clout wielded by oil producers
should they choose to use it to influence US foreign policy.
For instance, the Arab world may not have a nuclear bomb but
it does have the wherewithal to bomb the American economy. In this case,
staying with the dollar ensures they always have a bargaining chip when push
comes to shove.
China is similarly placed due to its massive holdings of US
Treasury bonds, estimated at $800 billion. Irritated by US pressure to revalue
the Chinese yuan, earlier this month two Chinese officials warned the US State
Department that China possessed the "nuclear option" to offload its
US dollar denomination assets.
And even though most Western economists believe such a step
would similarly hurt China, even its mention set off a dollar slump.
Other countries planning to diversify their dollar holdings
include South Korea, Sudan, Venezuela, Japan and Russia, which has ambitions to
open an oil bourse trading in rubles. Italy, Switzerland and Sweden have
already made adjustments to their foreign exchange reserves.
US influence is further being eroded in South America by
Venezuelan-led plans for a new bank -- Banco del Sur -- that would eliminate
the region's dependency on the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund;
institutions that the Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez refers to as "tools
of Washington".
The six other founder nations are Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil
Ecuador, Paraguay and Uruguay, which may soon be joined by Chile, Colombia,
Peru Guyana and Surinam.
If Latin American countries move out of their current
holdings of US Treasury bonds -- estimated at around $500 billion -- the impact
on the dollar could be enormous.
Billionaire investor Jim Rogers, chairman of Rogers Holdings
and a former partner of the man with the Midas touch, George Soros, recently
warned, "If you have dollars, I urge you to get out. That's not a currency
to own." He may be right.
There's a message here. The US may be the most militarily
powerful and technologically advanced country in the world but even a roaring
giant can be stopped in its tracks when he's hit where it hurts the most in his
pocketbook and especially when that pocketbook is also his Achilles' heel.
Linda
S. Heard is a British specialist writer on Middle East affairs. She welcomes
feedback and can be contacted by email at heardonthegrapevines@yahoo.co.uk.